Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
759 FXUS62 KCHS 072312 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 712 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure holds tight across the region through the week, with typical summertime convection possible daily along the advancing sea breeze. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Radar imagery shows that diurnal convection has steadily dwindled in the last hour or so as we start to lose heating and the sea breeze/outflow boundary progresses inland. There could still be a shower/thunderstorm or two over the next couple of hours, but we should be dry and quiet through the rest of the overnight. Overall, no significant fog concerns. Lows are forecast to range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains offshore Tuesday, with a subtle trough of low pressure situated inland. Thus, expect the typical summertime sea breeze to dominate. In terms of coverage, expect any convection to remain isolated to scattered in nature, mainly during the afternoon to early evening. Certainly enough instability to work with (upwards of 1000 J/kg), though sfc and bulk shear values remain quite meager. Latest soundings also showcase PWATs above 2 inches. So, as noted in the previous discussion, can`t rule out quick bouts of heavy rainfall, especially with limited storm motion. Breezy winds and lightning will also be possible with any storm, with the overall severe threat expected to remain minimal. Rain chances then increase Wednesday and Thursday as weak shortwave develops across the Tennessee Valley. In regard to temperatures, look for highs Tuesday to warm into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat index values between 100 - 106 degrees, with the warmest values occurring across our interior Georgia counties. While these values are expected to remain below Advisory levels, still encourage folks to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks from the heat. Otherwise, look for highs to be a touch "cooler" Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s become common. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall synoptic pattern holds steady through the extended period, with perhaps some weak ridging starting to develop across the Ohio River Valley heading into the weekend. At the sfc, this will translate to daily chances for showers and storms, especially during the afternoon and early evenings as the sea breeze moves inland. Temperatures look to remain seasonal during this time, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will also remain quite mild, as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. This should continue overnight and through the daytime on Tuesday as well. There will again be the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but confidence in direct impacts at the terminals is low. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through mid- week. && .MARINE... Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain rather weak with Atlantic high pressure in control across the region. South winds are expected to veer back to southwest during the night and generally remain around 10 kt. Seas will average between 2-3 ft. Tuesday through Saturday: Relatively benign conditions are forecast and as a result no marine concerns expected during the period. Southwest flow will persist with high pressure to the east. Wind speeds will be 15 kt or less and seas will average 2-3 ft. Rip Currents: Lingering swell and enhanced winds with the sea breeze along the Charleston County coast will support a Moderate Risk for rip currents this afternoon. The risk is low elsewhere. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...BSH/SST MARINE...DPB/SST