794
FXUS62 KCHS 262334
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
734 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while weak
cold fronts linger near the area through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Diurnally driven convection will run its course
through the evening hours. An upper level trough will edge into
the southeast region through the course of the night with
enhanced QG-forcing for ascent working across the Appalachians
and into the western Carolinas. It does appear at this juncture
that any associated shower activity will remain well upstream
through the night and plan to maintain a dry forecast. Low
temperatures once again will only dip into the middle 70s to
around 80. The risk for any fog is minimal, except for maybe
where it rained earlier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: Passing shortwave energy across the Virginia Tidewater
will help drive a weak cold front south through North Carolina and
into South Carolina during the day Thursday. This front coupled with
possible sea breeze interactions will support the development of
scattered showers/tstms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Model soundings within the warm sector are not overly unstable for
late June despite strong surface heating and high surface dewpoints.
This is likely due to some weak subsidence/mid-level warming noted
around 550 hPa. Still, with modest forcing aloft with approaching
shortwave energy, strong low-level lapse rates and modest mixed-
layered instability in place, there are more than enough mechanisms
in place to support the genesis of convection.

Locally, the greatest coverage looks to occur in the vicinity of the
Charleston Tri-County region during the mid-late afternoon hours
near the intersection of the sea breeze with the southward moving
cold front. Additional, more airmass driven convection, appears
likely to develop over interior Southeast Georgia which will spread
east into far southern South Carolina as the afternoon/evening
progresses. A belt of 25-30 kt of 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to
drop south in tandem with the approaching front. This may help aid
in the development of some stronger, possibly more organized
convective clusters during the late afternoon/early evening hours,
mainly centered from Colleton County and points north, including the
Charleston Metro Area. However, with DCAPE averaging about 1200 J/kg
south of the front, there will be a risk for a few strong to severe
tstms just about anywhere across Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia, especially where updrafts can become enhanced
near mesoscale boundary collisions. Highs in the mid-upper 90s away
from the coast coupled with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s east of I-
95 will support heat indices of 108-112. Another Heat Advisory could
be needed for areas along/east of I-95. Showers/tstms will diminish
overnight with a risk for at least isolated convection lingering
through daybreak Friday. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s well
inland to around 80 at the beaches.

Friday and Saturday: Weak troughing aloft will be replaced by
building subtropical ridging for both Friday and Saturday. The focus
for convection looks ill-defined and the convective character looks
to mostly airmass driven with K-indices running in the mid 30s.
Models appear be struggling with the timing/placement convection and
forecast soundings depict warming mid-level temperatures as
subsidence builds aloft. Pops were limited to 40% both afternoons
given this trend, mainly concentrated ahead of the inland moving
sea breeze. Convection will die out during the evening with the
strongest low-level convergence shifting closer to the Gulf Stream.
Highs both days will reach into the mid-upper 90s away from the
coast with dewpoints holding in the mid-upper 70s east of I-95. Heat
indices could peak above 108 both afternoons and Heat Advisories may
be needed. Lows Saturday morning will range from the lower-mid 70s
inland to around 80 at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday still looks be heavily influence by broad subsidence aloft
which may limit convection a bit. Pops were limited to chance for
now and mostly concentrated inland of the sea breeze. A more typical
summer convective pattern will take shape as next week approaches.
Broad troughing looks to develop by Monday which could help enhanced
diurnal convection Monday into Tuesday. There are considerable
mesoscale and timing details to be worked out, so pops were capped
at chance for now which is considerably lower than the more
aggressive 16/13z NBM. Sunday looks to be the last day for excessive
heat with heat indices 108+ mainly confined to areas long/east of I-
95 as highs warm into the mid-upper 90s away from the coast. Heat
Advisories may be needed. Somewhat cooler conditions will occur
Monday into Tuesday with highs only peaking in the lower-mid 90s
away from the coast as a weak cold front approaches. Lows each night
will drop into the lower-mid 70s inland with upper 70s/near 80 at
the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail with the 00Z TAF set. However,
there could be temporary flight restrictions at any of the
terminals after about 20Z Thursday due to scattered SHRA/TSRA.
We can reevaluate again in later TAF issuances and consider
including mention at a later time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in scattered
showers/tstms could occur at any of the three terminals each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent southerly flow will linger across the coastal waters
through tonight, generally 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to
around 20 knots. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday through Sunday: Southerly wind regime will persist through
the period with typical sea breeze enhancements likely along the
land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor with the afternoon sea
breezes. Winds look to hold below 15 kt with seas 3 ft or less.

Rip Currents: A lingering 2 ft, 9 second swell coupled with some
astronomical influences and typical sea breeze enhancements along
the beaches support a moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches
both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...