500
FXUS62 KCHS 061554
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1154 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Near term convective models are still trending towards a later
convective initiation this afternoon. Pops through late
afternoon were adjusted slightly to further reflect this trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Max heat indices of
108-112 look solid with some areas east of I-95 having already
surpassed 105 as of 06/1530z.

Today: H5 ridging looks to hold firm across coastal portions of
the Southeast U.S. coast today. Some erosion of its northwest
flanks should occur later this afternoon as a broad cyclonic flow
around the mean longwave trough centered over central U.S. nudges
east. GOES-E water vapor imagery shows a pronounced moisture plume
over the Deep South into the Southeast U.S. with its eastern edge
positioned across far interior Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia. The greatest chances for showers/tstms this
afternoon/evening will be embedded within this plume where the
best juxtaposition of deep-layered moisture and instability will
be found. Near term guidance suggests convective initiation across
the interior will be delayed about 1-2 hours than what was
expected earlier which should allow for a bit more heating today.
Highs were nudge up about a degree or two west of I-95 given this
trend. Highs will range from the mid-upper 90s well inland to the
mid-upper 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Dewpoints in
the mid-upper 70s will support heat indices of 108-112 across
much of the area and a Heat Advisory remains in force from 11 AM
until 8 PM. It is possible parts of the advisory may be cancelled
early depending on how convective evolves through the day.Saturday

Pops ranging from 60-70% across interior Southeast Georgia into
parts of Allendale, Hampton and northern Jasper Counties in
Southeast South Carolina to 5-10% across the immediate Georgia
coast into parts of the Charleston Metro area look on track.
Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.80" coast to 2.40 inland") and
instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg) coupled with
weak steering currents will support a risk for locally heavy
rainfall. The biggest hazards with tstms this afternoon/evening
will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall with flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage areas and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Tonight: Convection will gradually wind down this evening.
Warm/humid conditions will persist with lows ranging from the
mid 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper ridge will remain over the Southeast during the
period, though weak disturbances will continuously move
through. Meanwhile, a weak front will remain stalled just
inland. The airmass will be particularly moist during the period
with PWATs generally at or above 2.1". Prevailing S to SE
surface flow will support a robust inland-moving sea breeze each
afternoon. There will be plenty of forcing and moisture to
support numerous showers and thunderstorms, particularly during
the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage is
expected to be across the inland areas. Instability does not
look to be strong enough to warrant a significant severe
thunderstorm risk, though localized flooding is possible due to
heavy rainfall. The weakening upper ridge will bring some
slight relief from the heat, though mid to upper 70s dewpoints
will still push heat indices above 100F each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively wet pattern is likely to persist into late next
week. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place while a series
of shortwaves ripple through. Meanwhile, a weak lee trough will
remain across the Midlands and a robust sea breeze will occur
each afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
day, with potentially scattered coverage extending well into the
overnight hours. High temps will briefly rise into the mid 90s
by Wednesday, then back to the lower 90s late in the week. We
could flirt with Heat Advisory criteria just about any day,
though our forecast right now keeps most areas below 108 heat
index.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Tstms look to cluster inland of the
terminals this afternoon/evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight: Expect seas around 3 ft with southerly winds
backing from the southeast in the afternoon with a daytime sea
breeze developing. Winds will mainly be 15 kt or less.

Sunday through Thursday, a typical summertime pattern will
prevail. Southerly winds will typically be less than 15 knots
and seas no higher than 4 ft.

Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 9 to 10 seconds and proximity
to the new moon will maintain a Moderate Risk for rip currents
for today (Saturday).

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$