Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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902 FXUS61 KCLE 030557 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 157 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today before departing to the east tonight. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight. A cold front extending from low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east across the area late Wednesday followed by a trough lingering across the region trough the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 900 pm update... With this update, we bumped up POPs to 30 percent for areas along and west of the CLE metro area for the next hour or so because of the recent shower development along a weak frontal boundary. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast continues to be on track. Previous discussion... Breaks in the clouds across NW Ohio have allowed a minimal amount of instability to develop. Regional radars show scattered showers filling back in ahead of and along the front. Left a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of a line from Cleveland to Akron but chances of thunder are pretty low given warming in the mid- levels and meager instability. ML CAPE may reach as high as 500 J/kg early this evening though so a slight chance remains. With that said, did raise pops slightly and linger them into the evening an extra hour or two as several 12Z CAMs show these showers holding together to the east through sunset. Surface low pressure will be overcome by high pressure building in from the west tonight. Winds will be very light or calm and high boundary layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 degrees will result in fog formation. Breaks developing in the clouds will lead to cooling and fog or stratus filling in overnight. Models are in good agreement that the coverage of fog will be pretty good in areas from Mansfield to Akron to Youngstown that have less opportunity to mix out early this evening. Dewpoints are slightly lower behind the front in SW Lower Michigan but is unclear if these will reach the area before winds drop off. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight or early Monday morning depending on the coverage and extent of the dense fog. Fog will tend to lift on Monday morning with clouds scattering out through the afternoon. A shortwave ridge will be overhead with a capping inversion in place. Only concern for a brief shower might be along the lake breeze, primarily in NW Pennsylvania where surface convergence looks a little stronger during the early afternoon. Included a 20 pop in this area but most of the day will be dry. Southerly flow and warm advection will push temperatures into the upper 70s(east) to low 80s(west) on Monday. Shortwave energy rounds the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes on Monday night. Moisture return is focused across Michigan along the warm front but low levels do not seem to moisten enough in Ohio to need a pop for Monday night. Lows temperatures trend upwards a few more degrees as we head into a warm stretch for first half of this week. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Mainly quiet weather on Tuesday will become more active by Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves east through the Great Lakes, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. An upper-level ridge will reside across the Eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday which should largely keep precipitation chances at bay. Only exception may be an isolated shower/storm associated with a lake breeze Tuesday afternoon, though even this potential appears low given dry mid-levels. Tuesday will feature the warmest temperatures of the foreseeable future with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. An upper-level trough will slide east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and is expected to weaken as it becomes cut-off from the main jet energy. Nonetheless, favorable low-level moisture combined with lift from the trough will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots (0-3 SRH ~100 m2/s2) could support some stronger storms/bowing segments with primarily a wind threat, although we`re not looking at anything too widespread or organized at this time given weak mid-level lapse rates <6 C/km in addition to abundant cloud cover which should limit the MLCAPE. Area soundings do favor a heavy rain threat with any stronger storms given PWATs between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, skinny CAPE profiles, and warm cloud depths >10kft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned upper-level low will become cut-off sometime Wednesday night into Thursday as it slowly meanders across the Eastern Great Lakes through much of the weekend, becoming trapped within an upper-level "Omega Block" pattern. This will allow multiple shortwave disturbances to impact the region through the weekend, with the pattern resembling that more of early Spring versus early Summer. The forecast in the long term will favor slightly below-average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, periodic rain showers with occasional thunderstorms during the day, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Low to mid-level clouds continue to hang around across the area, mainly along and east of I-77. These clouds should continue to dissipate, with pockets of low visibilities with fog developing through Monday morning. There`s some uncertainty with how widespread fog becomes, and the development of fog vs. low stratus but at a minimum, patchy fog is expected, with some of it being dense fog. Low stratus with ceilings of 200-500 ft will also be possible. Dense fog is possible for almost any inland location but most likely for areas along and south of US-30, such as KCAK and KMFD. Fog should quickly dissipate between 12-14Z later this morning, giving way to low clouds that should eventually transition to a scattered cumulus by early afternoon. This cumulus should also gradually dissipate by mid-late afternoon as the boundary layer mixes with dry air aloft. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected with periods of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. && .MARINE... A mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week as winds are expected to be less than 20 knots, favoring an offshore direction. Some patchy fog may develop across the central and eastern basins of the Lake tonight. A few stronger storms with primarily a wind threat are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper-level trough swings east across the region. The wind direction will become more westerly by Thursday and Friday, around 15 knots, which could bring some 3 to perhaps 4-footers across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Kahn