532
FXUS64 KCRP 292332
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of heat related impacts Sunday.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues tonight, becoming a high
risk on Sunday.

Mid and upper level high pressure currently centered across north
Texas, will continue to meander across the state through Sunday and
keep a weak influence across S TX. This morning`s sounding showed a
PWAT of 1.9 inches, but that has come down a tad to around 1.8
inches per satellite data. PWATs around 2 inches continue across the
Victoria Crossroads this afternoon. Even with the abundant moisture,
the subsidence from the high pressure is keeping showers from
developing and expect no rainfall through the evening.

Rain chances increase early Sunday morning as a surge of deeper
moisture advects into the Coastal Bend and Middle Texas Coastal
Waters. This deeper moisture will be coming from the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico where the National Hurricane Center has a 50 percent
chance of a tropical depression developing over the next 48 hours.
No direct impacts are expected for S TX as the tropical disturbance
is expected to move into Mexico well south of TX. However, indirect
impacts such as the deeper moisture along with an increase in
swells, are expected.

The best chance of convection will be across the southern portions
of the Coastal Bend Sunday morning then shifting to the Laredo area
by Sunday afternoon as the surge of moisture shifts westward. This
is in response to a westward moving upper level inverted trough that
will tap into the deep moisture. Am expecting more showers rather
than thunderstorms due to the tropical nature of the environment.
The chance of convection for Sunday is low to medium (20-40%).

Rain chances end from east to west as the upper level high pressure
re-strengthens across the region leading to drier conditions Sunday
night.

There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts on Sunday. Heat
indices will generally range from 105 to 109 with a few locations
around 110-113 briefly in the afternoon.

As for the rip current risk, it will remain moderate tonight, but
increase to a high risk Sunday due to swell periods forecasted to
increase to 9 seconds, possibly 10 seconds. As for minor coastal
flooding, the astronomical tide levels are currently low, thus an
increase of 1 ft above normal should still keep water from reaching
the dunes on Sunday. Will have to continue to monitor trends to
see if the levels increase more than a 1ft above normal.

Seas are forecast to increase to 7 feet despite weak to moderate
winds. The increased seas will be in response to the tropical
disturbance forecasted for the southwest Gulf of Mexico pushing
higher swells and swell periods toward the TX coast. Confidence is
medium (30-50%) at this time as to whether swell periods increase to
10 seconds.

Could start to see hazy conditions by Sunday as Saharan dust works
its way into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday,
becoming moderate to major by mid week.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding
possible Monday.

Synopsis: A mid-level high pressure system is positioned over
Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas and is expected to move slowly eastward
throughout the week. Heat-related impacts will generally range from
minor to moderate; however, some locales in the northern Brush
Country and southern Coastal Bend may see the risk increase to major
as the week progresses.

Monday to Saturday:

Upper-Level Pattern: The overall upper-level pattern remains
unchanged, maintaining relatively dry conditions across South Texas.
A 500 mb trough over the western CONUS is anticipated to push the
upper ridge east/south-east across Texas and along the Gulf Coast
states by Thursday. While areas to the north may experience showers
and thunderstorms, South Texas is expected to remain mostly rain-
free.

Tropics: Tropical Storm Beryl is projected to rapidly strengthen and
could be a Major Hurricane as it reaches the Windward Islands early
in the week. Then, Beryl is forecast to track west/north-west across
the central and western Caribbean. Early indications suggest that a
500 mb ridge over the Gulf Coast states would keep it suppressed to
the south, aligning with the majority of ensemble model predictions.
Currently, there are no expected impacts to the Texas coast but will
continue to monitor and update the forecast as the system approaches
the southern Gulf.

Rip Currents and Coastal Flooding: High risk of rip currents and
minor coastal flooding could linger into Monday due to slowly
decreasing swells around 8-9 seconds early Monday. Water could reach
the dunes. Water levels will recede by Tuesday.

Dry Air: Drier air will move into the region on Monday, with
precipitable water values (PWATs) falling to around 1.70 inches
according to the GEFS ensemble Mean. This will lower relative
humidity and the Heat Index, despite surface temperatures reaching
95-101F in the Brush Country. Then PWAT`s rising back to around 2.0
inches late Tuesday as moisture advects in from the Gulf.

Saharan Dust: Impacts of Saharan dust is expected to linger over
South Texas through Monday, and again late in the week causing hazy
conditions.

Temperature Trends: Temperatures will gradually increase, reaching
100-105F in the Brush Country by midweek. Some moisture will push
into the region, slightly increasing humidity levels.

Heat Risk: Heat risk levels will rise from minor to moderate, with
some areas experiencing major heat risk as Heat Indices surpass
110F.

Fourth of July: The weather for the Fourth of July and the
subsequent weekend is expected to be quiet but hot with sfc
temperatures in the mid 90s-100. heat indices over some areas will
top 110 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period.
Southeast winds will remain elevated through around 02-05Z before
decreasing below 10 kts. Brief MVFR CIGs are expected generally
after 07-08Z tonight for COT and LRD. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the
easternmost TAF sites beginning early Sunday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift west around the LRD and
COT area by mid-to-late Sunday afternoon. Due to confidence and
timing this was left out of this TAF cycle but is important to
note before updates are made around 06Z TAF cycle. Southeast winds
will kick back up tomorrow afternoon, with gusts generally around
20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A brief period of moderate onshore flow south of Port Aransas this
afternoon will diminish this evening. Otherwise, a generally weak to
moderate onshore flow can be expected through Sunday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely to develop through the day Sunday as
seas build to around 8 feet, mainly over the offshore waters. This
in response to a tropical wave moving into southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible on Sunday. Weak to moderate east to southeast winds are
expected Monday, becoming weaker and more southwesterly by Monday
night into Tuesday. The remainder of the week, onshore weak to
moderate flow is expected. Seas decrease through the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  93  79  95 /  10  30  10  10
Victoria          78  95  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
Laredo            80  98  78  99 /   0  30  10  10
Alice             78  97  75  99 /   0  30  10  10
Rockport          83  94  81  94 /  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           81 100  78 102 /   0  20  10   0
Kingsville        80  95  78  96 /  10  40  10  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  91 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98