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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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582 FXUS64 KCRP 291951 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate risk of heat related impacts Sunday. - Moderate risk of rip currents continues tonight, becoming a high risk on Sunday. Mid and upper level high pressure currently centered across north Texas, will continue to meander across the state through Sunday and keep a weak influence across S TX. This morning`s sounding showed a PWAT of 1.9 inches, but that has come down a tad to around 1.8 inches per satellite data. PWATs around 2 inches continue across the Victoria Crossroads this afternoon. Even with the abundant moisture, the subsidence from the high pressure is keeping showers from developing and expect no rainfall through the evening. Rain chances increase early Sunday morning as a surge of deeper moisture advects into the Coastal Bend and Middle Texas Coastal Waters. This deeper moisture will be coming from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where the National Hurricane Center has a 50 percent chance of a tropical depression developing over the next 48 hours. No direct impacts are expected for S TX as the tropical disturbance is expected to move into Mexico well south of TX. However, indirect impacts such as the deeper moisture along with an increase in swells, are expected. The best chance of convection will be across the southern portions of the Coastal Bend Sunday morning then shifting to the Laredo area by Sunday afternoon as the surge of moisture shifts westward. This is in response to a westward moving upper level inverted trough that will tap into the deep moisture. Am expecting more showers rather than thunderstorms due to the tropical nature of the environment. The chance of convection for Sunday is low to medium (20-40%). Rain chances end from east to west as the upper level high pressure re-strengthens across the region leading to drier conditions Sunday night. There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts on Sunday. Heat indices will generally range from 105 to 109 with a few locations around 110-113 briefly in the afternoon. As for the rip current risk, it will remain moderate tonight, but increase to a high risk Sunday due to swell periods forecasted to increase to 9 seconds, possibly 10 seconds. As for minor coastal flooding, the astronomical tide levels are currently low, thus an increase of 1 ft above normal should still keep water from reaching the dunes on Sunday. Will have to continue to monitor trends to see if the levels increase more than a 1ft above normal. Seas are forecast to increase to 7 feet despite weak to moderate winds. The increased seas will be in response to the tropical disturbance forecasted for the southwest Gulf of Mexico pushing higher swells and swell periods toward the TX coast. Confidence is medium (30-50%) at this time as to whether swell periods increase to 10 seconds. Could start to see hazy conditions by Sunday as Saharan dust works its way into the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday, becoming moderate to major by mid week. - Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding possible Monday. Synopsis: A mid-level high pressure system is positioned over Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas and is expected to move slowly eastward throughout the week. Heat-related impacts will generally range from minor to moderate; however, some locales in the northern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend may see the risk increase to major as the week progresses. Monday to Saturday: Upper-Level Pattern: The overall upper-level pattern remains unchanged, maintaining relatively dry conditions across South Texas. A 500 mb trough over the western CONUS is anticipated to push the upper ridge east/south-east across Texas and along the Gulf Coast states by Thursday. While areas to the north may experience showers and thunderstorms, South Texas is expected to remain mostly rain- free. Tropics: Tropical Storm Beryl is projected to rapidly strengthen and could be a Major Hurricane as it reaches the Windward Islands early in the week. Then, Beryl is forecast to track west/north-west across the central and western Caribbean. Early indications suggest that a 500 mb ridge over the Gulf Coast states would keep it suppressed to the south, aligning with the majority of ensemble model predictions. Currently, there are no expected impacts to the Texas coast but will continue to monitor and update the forecast as the system approaches the southern Gulf. Rip Currents and Coastal Flooding: High risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding could linger into Monday due to slowly decreasing swells around 8-9 seconds early Monday. Water could reach the dunes. Water levels will recede by Tuesday. Dry Air: Drier air will move into the region on Monday, with precipitable water values (PWATs) falling to around 1.70 inches according to the GEFS ensemble Mean. This will lower relative humidity and the Heat Index, despite surface temperatures reaching 95-101F in the Brush Country. Then PWAT`s rising back to around 2.0 inches late Tuesday as moisture advects in from the Gulf. Saharan Dust: Impacts of Saharan dust is expected to linger over South Texas through Monday, and again late in the week causing hazy conditions. Temperature Trends: Temperatures will gradually increase, reaching 100-105F in the Brush Country by midweek. Some moisture will push into the region, slightly increasing humidity levels. Heat Risk: Heat risk levels will rise from minor to moderate, with some areas experiencing major heat risk as Heat Indices surpass 110F. Fourth of July: The weather for the Fourth of July and the subsequent weekend is expected to be quiet but hot with sfc temperatures in the mid 90s-100. heat indices over some areas will top 110 degrees under partly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. Brief MVFR CIGs are expected generally after 07Z tonight. Models indicate a 30KT low level jet developing overnight which will keep surface winds elevated around 10KT. LLWS is not anticipated due to the elevated surface winds that will be generally out of the same direction as the LLJ. This will also keep visibilities due to patchy fog 5SM or higher. However, after the TAF period, hazy conditions are expected to develop which may impact VSBYs. Isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm or two, can be expected mainly across the ALI and CRP TAF sites early Sunday morning. The convection is forecast to shift west with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around the LRD area by Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A brief period of moderate onshore flow south of Port Aransas this afternoon will diminish this evening. Otherwise, a generally weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected through Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop through the day Sunday as seas build to around 8 feet, mainly over the offshore waters. This in response to a tropical wave moving into southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. Weak to moderate east to southeast winds are expected Monday, becoming weaker and more southwesterly by Monday night into Tuesday. The remainder of the week, onshore weak to moderate flow is expected. Seas decrease through the day Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 93 79 95 / 10 30 10 10 Victoria 78 95 74 97 / 10 20 10 10 Laredo 80 98 78 99 / 0 30 10 10 Alice 78 97 75 99 / 0 30 10 10 Rockport 83 94 81 94 / 10 20 10 10 Cotulla 81 100 78 102 / 0 20 10 0 Kingsville 80 95 78 96 / 10 40 10 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 91 / 10 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-240>244- 246-247. High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE/81 LONG TERM....BF/80 AVIATION...TE