Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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964 FXUS64 KCRP 291716 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect again today - Increasing rip current risk this weekend GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery this morning depicts some low level stratus streaming across the Coastal Plains as a ~30 knot H92 LLJ ushers deeper moisture through the region. Winds will likely remain a bit to breezy to allow for fog to develop this morning. Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the area today. Just like yesterday, another weak shortwave rotates along the southern periphery of the high. However, guidance has been pretty consistent with bringing some "slightly" drier air into the region. PWATs look to dip down into the 1.7-1.8" range. While this may still seem high, our 00Z KCRP sounding last night revealed a 2.16" PWAT. With that said, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a rogue shower or storm develop as we reach our convective temps this afternoon. Another Heat Advisory will be in effect for much of the region from 1PM to 6PM. The influx of drier air will be the main factor in determining if we will achieve our max heat indices today or not. If there air arrives sooner than expected, we likely won`t top 110 this afternoon. However, it appears that the drier air will be delayed just long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for today. The end time of 6PM may be too long so wouldn`t be surprised if we see it cancelled early. The pattern changes a bit on Sunday as a tropical wave moves into the Bay of Campeche. NHC has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next two days for this wave. A tropical depression could form early next week before moving inland over Mexico. As this wave moves to our south, a plume of deep tropical moisture will spread across our southern counties. As a result, we have a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. With that said, the deeper moisture will have to fight through some Saharan dust that is also forecast to arrive Sunday afternoon. In addition to the increased rain chances, we will also see our coastal hazards return. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop through the day Sunday as seas begin to elevate. Our rip current risk increases from Moderate to High on Sunday as swells increase across the Western Gulf. The high risk will likely be extended into the work week. Minor coastal flooding may also be possible during times of high tide.| && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday, becoming moderate to major by mid week. - Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding possible Monday. The overall upper level pattern hasn`t changed, and looks to remain somewhat stagnant through Thursday, before a 500 mb trough pushes the upper ridge south into Texas and along the Gulf Coast. While areas to the north could get some showers and thunderstorms, it for the most part looks continue to keep us relatively rain free. The only real chances would be with the tropical wave that is expected to move through the Bay of Campeche Sunday and Sunday night before it moves into Mexico around Tampico. As the wave moves into Mexico, the models show some potential for some rain to move north from the RGV into Coastal Bend and the Brush Country. However, the chance is 15-20% Sunday night. Drier air moves into the region on Monday (PWATs fall to less than 2.0"), which lowers the RH and the Heat Index, despite 95-101F sfc max temperatures, in the Brush Country. Saharan Dust also makes its way into South Texas Sunday into Monday producing hazy conditions. Tuesday through Saturday, temperatures slowly increase into the 100-105 range in the Brush Country with some moisture pushing into the region a little more. The Heat Risk moves up from the minor to moderate levels to the moderate to major risk as the Heat indices push up passed 110F. Sunday night into Monday will also have a high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding, as the swells from the wave moving into Mexico begin to have periods of 9-10 seconds. The wave energy is expected to push the water up to the dunes over a large areas of the beach. The water recedes Tuesday as the tropical wave, and its swells move out of the region. Going into the 4th of July and the weekend the weather looks quiet, but hot. "Beryl" is still a long way off with the ensemble members of the ECMWF and GFS still in the Caribbean sea Friday and on some models, Saturday. So it is too early to tell details on how it would affect the Gulf, but the early indications is that the 500 mb ridge would keep it suppressed to the south, which is where the majority of the ensemble members put it. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. Brief MVFR CIGs are expected generally after 07Z tonight. Models indicate a 30KT low level jet developing overnight which will keep surface winds elevated around 10KT. LLWS is not anticipated due to the elevated surface winds that will be generally out of the same direction as the LLJ. This will also keep visibilities due to patchy fog 5SM or higher. However, after the TAF period, hazy conditions are expected to develop which may impact VSBYs. Isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm or two, can be expected mainly across the ALI and CRP TAF sites early Sunday morning. The convection is forecast to shift west with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around the LRD area by Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will continue through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop through the day Sunday as seas build to near 10 feet at times, generally over the offshore waters, as a tropical wave moves into the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. Weak to moderate east to southeast winds are expected Monday, becoming weaker and more southerly by Monday night into Tuesday. The remainder of the week, winds are expected to be weak to moderate and generally south. Seas decrease through the day Monday. Rain chances decrease the remainder of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 81 94 79 / 0 10 30 10 Victoria 94 78 95 75 / 10 10 20 0 Laredo 100 80 97 77 / 0 10 40 10 Alice 97 78 96 76 / 0 10 30 0 Rockport 94 83 94 81 / 10 10 20 0 Cotulla 102 80 99 78 / 0 10 20 0 Kingsville 96 81 95 78 / 0 10 40 10 Navy Corpus 91 84 92 83 / 10 10 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-240>244- 246-247. High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...TE/81