297
FXUS61 KCTP 022355
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight
and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great
Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this
week. Low pressure tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a
cold front through the state Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Upper level ridging building over PA will result in fair and
warm conditions tonight. Diurnal cumulus over the southeast part
of the forecast area will fade with loss of heating this
evening. However, satellite imagery shows a decent amount of
upstream mid and high level cloudiness over Ohio and Lk Erie
associated with warm advection aloft preceding a weak shortwave
riding the top of the building ridge. Therefore, expect an
increase in clouds overnight. Some locations may temporarily
become overcast, but partly cloudy wording should suffice on
balance for most of the region overnight.

Mostly clear skies through late evening, combined with a light
wind and dry air, may allow the eastern half of the state to
fall a bit below NBM guidance for min temps tonight. However,
increasing cloud cover and a southerly return flow associated
with the departing surface high should result in much milder
conditions than last night. Most locations should be in the
upper 50s to low 60s by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging over PA should provide most of the region
with fair and warmer conditions Wednesday. The warmup will be
accompanied by an uptick in humidity as a southerly flow
increases ahead of a weak cold front over the Grt Lks. Model RH
profiles suggest the entire region will start Wednesday mostly
sunny. However, diurnal heating and surging low level moisture
should result a fair amount of afternoon cumulus, especially
over the W Mtns.

GEFS 2m temp anomalies are a few degrees above normal over the
W Mtns and near average elsewhere, translating to highs well
into the 80s areawide. Moisture advection ahead of the
approaching cold front could potentially support a shower/tsra
toward evening across Warren/Mckean counties based on the latest
HREF and 18Z operational runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All medium range guidance tracks a dying cold front southward
into Central PA Wed night into Thursday, accompanied by a good
chance of showers/tsra. Latest RH profiles suggest there will be
plenty of cloud cover and progged mid level flow doesn`t look
overly impressive. Therefore, the severe weather threat for
Thursday currently looks limited.

The front is progged to stall out in the vicinity of Southern
PA Thursday night, then return north as a warm front Friday
ahead of low pressure lifting across the Grt Lks. Falling
heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and
associated surface low lifting across the Grt Lks should bring a
round of showers/tsra in the Friday PM to Saturday timeframe.
Current guidance suggests the shortwave and bulk of the large
scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive
mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to
Saturday.

The bulk of guidance now supports fair and seasonable conditions
Sunday into at least early Monday, as surface ridging and drier
air work in behind the cold front. Showers and storms return to
the forecast for early next week as another wave of low
pressure tracking to our north brings a cold front through the
region.

Temperatures in the long term forecast look above average,
especially overnight lows Thursday and Friday night, when EPS
pwats are 150pct of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
One line TAFs are almost possible for this 24hr forecast period.
Some gusts into the teens out there now due to the deep mixing
will lighten/go away before sunset. The high pressure dome
overhead will keep wind very light overnight. The Srly wind will
pick up a bit again on Wed. There is a small window of time
overnight when the wind just aloft gets up to 25-35KTs, so
we`ve mentioned LLWS in the wrn forecasts, but the core of the
faster wind is more over the NW, and we don`t expect the SErn
terminals to have LLWS. A cold front will approach Wed night and
lay out W-E over the state on Thurs. The deep moisture Wed PM
and Thurs will allow for sct-nmrs TSRA, but not until after 21Z
at BFD and much later in JST. So we`ve kept out mentions from
all TAFs from this 18Z pkg.

Outlook...

Wed night...TSRA NW (IFR poss), dry SE with no impacts.

Thu...AM low cigs and isold SHRA possible W Mtns. Sct PM TSRA
impacts possible over all the airspace, but mainly S of I-80.

Fri...sct TSRA, impacts possible, mainly PM, highest covg W.

Sat...sct-nmrs TSRA areawide, highest SE in PM.

Sun...AM fog poss. Otherwise, no sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a
mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set
in 2021.

June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with
a mean temperature of 76.0F.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo
CLIMATE...Colbert