Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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912 FXUS63 KDLH 131434 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 934 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with a few isolated storms today. Some storms could be strong enough to produce pea sized hail and gusts to 40 mph. - Quiet weather for Friday - Active weather returns Saturday with severe risk increasing Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Current conditions/This morning: Thunderstorm activity has dissipated across the region. A few areas of patchy to dense fog have sprung up in the wake of the precipitation. This low cloud is not expected to linger long after sunrise. Today: Cooler temperatures today with only a few spots climbing into the lower 80s. Most locations will remain in the 70s. Cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough digs through the region will generate some showers and isolated storms through this afternoon and evening. Convective parameter space does not look to be overly impressive with bulk shear around 40 kts and instability of a couple hundred J/kg. Enough to generate some gusty winds around 40 mph as well as some pea size hail. Friday/Saturday: High pressure and quiet weather settles in for Friday with highs in the 70s. This high pressure does not stick around long as it is quickly brushed off to the east for the weekend with southerly flow streaming back into the Northland. The increased moisture advection back across the region will lend itself to PoPs inundating the forecast. Sunday into early next week/ Next Severe Threat There are some early signatures in the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance that suggests severe potential may once again ramp up Sunday and into early next week. We will be looking at some warmer temps as a thermal ridge nudges into the Northland. Current highs for Sunday are in the 80s. The aforementioned southerly flow will promote PW increasing towards 1.3" Our environment will certainly be unstable the main question will be if we have any good synoptic features to act as strong triggers. Both the Euro and the GFS highlight a cold front approaching from the west but timing still remains contested. Depending on the evolution of this boundary both Sunday and Monday could become quite active weather days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Patchy fog this morning will erode within the first couple hours of the forecast period. VFR conditions are expected through the day with diurnal cumulus developing in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will be gusting around 25 kts. A few showers and isolated storms will develop in the afternoon and persist into the early evening hours. A few storms could produce some pea sized hail and erratic wind gusts. Lastly, a few models are beginning to hint a a fog signal for tomorrow morning but uncertainty remains very high at this time. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 930 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Westerly winds were increasing this morning and that has helped dissipate the fog. Webcams along the North Shore showed the dissipation in the fog. We expanded the Small Craft Advisory some due to gusts up to 25 knots as seen in area observation this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected to develop today and then diminish by late evening. A strong storm or two may occur with gusts to 35 knots and pea size hail the main threats. Winds at or below 15 knots are then expected into Friday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...JDS MARINE...Melde