381
AXPZ20 KNHC 120327
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N81W to 11N84W to 09N125W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
05N to 12N E of 91W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 91W and 100W, and
from 06N to 10N between 100W and 109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern
supports moderate NW to N winds across the Baja offshore waters
between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands, and gentle
NW winds to the north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are generally 5 to 7
ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the
southern half of the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 2
to 3 ft range, except to 4 ft at the entrance. Gentle to moderate
NW winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
except for moderate N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms persist across the waters south of 14N, between
Chiapas and Guerrero.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through Fri. The high pressure will build toward
the area late this week and yield an increase in winds. NW swell
will impact waters offshore Baja California at the end of the
week, leading to seas of 7 to 9 ft. Thunderstorms offshore
Central America will gradually shift NW to the waters of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and offshore southern Mexico through Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends from
NW Nicaragua across the Pacific offshore waters along 13N to the
south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This pattern is forecast to
persist through the week, with the potential for the trough to
lift farther north and to the waters offshore of Tehuantepec late
in the week. The current trough position is resulting in gentle
to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central
America north of 04N, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds
between the Galapagos Islands and southwestern Colombia. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 4 ft inside the
Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the
regional offshore waters N of 05N, and extend across large
portions of Central America and into the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and
scattered to numerous thunderstorms will dominate the region this
week. Low pressure is expected to develop across portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of
Central America Wed and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough
to lift farther northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
winds to the west of 90W increasing to fresh to locally strong,
leading to building seas to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm activity
to also increase during this time. Fresh to strong SW winds are
expected to develop south of Panama Fri and shift into the Gulf
of Panama Fri night and Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The NE Pacific ridge has reorganized today, and is now centered
on a 1030 mb high near 38N143W. The associated ridge persists
over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W, producing a
gentle to moderate N to NE wind flow north of the monsoon trough
and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are observed
S of the monsoon trough from the Equator to about 08N. Seas are 4
to 7 ft across the entire area in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters W of 120W throughout the week. The SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to increase to
fresh to strong speeds late tonight into Thu between 90W and
110W, building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing
thunderstorm activity across that area.

$$
Konarik