Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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646 FXUS64 KEPZ 191034 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 434 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 An east push of moisture will bring storm chances to eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow winds and hail will be possible with storms. This strong east push will also bring windy conditions to locations along the International Border late tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 An east push of moisture will continue to press westward throughout the day today allowing for chances of thunderstorms where very gusty and erratic outflow winds and hail are possible. Best chances for thunderstorms will be in Otero and Hudspeth counties. In addition, this push of moisture will bring windy conditions to locations along the Intl Border and especially for west facing slopes. Thus issued a wind advisory for El Paso county, southern Dona Ana, and portions of Hudspeth county. Uncertainty remains for western locations bordering AZ. Wind speeds may reach to just under the 35MPH sustained wind speed threshold but uncertain at this time if these locations warrant a wind advisory at this time. A flood watch has been issued for the Sacramento Mtns today as this is a very sensitive area due to wildfires. Any good rain producing thunderstorms that falls over the burn scar area could bring debris flows and flash flooding. As an inverted trough pushes closer to the area this will allow areawide rain chances to persist through Friday before rain shuts off east to west late Friday. Very little instability expected Thursday and into Friday which may mean more clouds with light showery activity for the most part. However, bulk shear values of around 30-40kts looks to be present west of the RGV on Thursday allowing the potential for some stronger storms if they can get going. Otherwise, we can expect a mostly cloudy day on Thursday which will help alleviate the Borderland from the hot temperatures we`ve been seeing. The NBM went with a value of 87F for the El Paso airport on Thursday. The 25th percentile would be a value of around 77F and the 75th percentile is around 83F. Clouds and possible rain/thunderstorms expected but it does seem like the 25th percentile would be too low of a high temperature on Thursday. Little confidence in high temperatures right now, so just stayed with 87F. Either way, we can expect cooler temperatures than what we`ll see today. Lingering rain chances possible over the weekend and through early next week as an upper high pressure parks itself over the Borderland. This also means a gradual warm up Thursday and onward. We may see our next triple digit day in El Paso on Sunday where triple digits will continue through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with SKC. Surface winds west AOB 8 knots. After 15Z from the Rio Grande Valley east...winds becoming southeast 8-12 knots and increasing southeast 15-25G35 knots after 00Z. West of the Rio Grand Valley...south 8012 knots and increasing southeast 12-17G30 knots by the end of the period. TAF notes: KELP/KLRU both could see an evening thunderstorm but too small a chance at this time. Also strong southeast winds at KELP may eventually need an AWW for Wed evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Elevated fire conditions expected this afternoon for the Rio Grande Valley and westward. Min RH values in this location will be 10-13% and higher RH values will be seen to the east (20-35%). An east push of moisture will continue to press westward today and will bring breezy to windy conditions for locations along the International Border early this evening lasting through Thursday morning. However this should alleviate some fire concerns the winds will be coupled with increasing moisture. Thunderstorms possible this afternoon generally for the Rio Grande Valley and eastward. Thunderstorms will be capable of very gusty and erratic outflow winds and hail. This will make it quite dangerous near the fireline of ongoing wildfires if thunderstorms pops in the vicinity. Low chances of thunderstorms popping west of the Rio Grande but if storms do form, storms will be capable of dry lightning and gusty outflow winds. A shift in the weather is expected Thursday as we can expect mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and areawide rain chances Thursday and Friday. Breezy southeast winds expected Thu and Friday but min RH values stay out of critical thresholds Thursday through Sunday lowering fire concerns. However, fire concerns return as early as Monday as very warm temperatures and mostly dry weather will be seen early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 105 76 87 75 / 40 40 50 60 Sierra Blanca 95 66 76 66 / 40 40 70 50 Las Cruces 103 72 88 69 / 20 20 40 60 Alamogordo 100 65 87 67 / 30 40 50 60 Cloudcroft 77 50 61 51 / 40 50 70 70 Truth or Consequences 99 71 87 68 / 0 30 30 60 Silver City 92 65 82 64 / 0 20 30 50 Deming 101 70 89 68 / 0 20 30 60 Lordsburg 99 70 90 68 / 0 20 20 40 West El Paso Metro 101 73 85 72 / 30 40 40 60 Dell City 98 67 79 66 / 30 40 60 50 Fort Hancock 103 68 84 68 / 40 50 60 50 Loma Linda 95 65 76 65 / 40 40 60 60 Fabens 103 72 86 71 / 40 40 50 50 Santa Teresa 100 70 85 69 / 30 30 40 60 White Sands HQ 100 74 83 74 / 30 40 50 60 Jornada Range 100 66 85 66 / 20 30 40 60 Hatch 103 68 88 67 / 10 30 40 60 Columbus 100 72 88 70 / 0 20 30 60 Orogrande 100 70 82 69 / 30 40 50 50 Mayhill 85 54 66 54 / 50 50 80 60 Mescalero 87 54 72 54 / 40 40 70 70 Timberon 85 51 67 51 / 40 50 70 60 Winston 90 56 79 56 / 0 30 40 60 Hillsboro 96 65 83 64 / 0 30 40 60 Spaceport 99 65 86 63 / 10 20 40 60 Lake Roberts 92 60 83 60 / 10 20 30 60 Hurley 95 64 85 62 / 0 20 30 50 Cliff 100 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 40 Mule Creek 93 66 89 67 / 0 10 10 30 Faywood 95 65 82 64 / 0 20 30 60 Animas 99 69 91 68 / 0 10 20 30 Hachita 99 68 89 66 / 0 20 20 50 Antelope Wells 98 68 90 67 / 0 20 20 40 Cloverdale 93 68 87 67 / 0 10 10 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher