898
FXUS64 KEPZ 282045
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
245 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot to very hot conditions are expected for Saturday with Heat
Advisories in place for much of the lowlands. Not as hot for next
week as the monsoonal moisture tap holds over the region. Drier
conditions are forecast for areas east of the Rio Grande.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A pretty stagnant pattern will be in place through the forecast
period. For the rest of today and this evening, isolated showers
and storms continue mainly over the mountains. The main impacts
will be gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours. Flash flooding is not a big concern with PWs around
1.1" and not much if any forcing. The activity dissipates
overnight as mid-high clouds linger.

A rare backdoor front for this time of year arrives on Saturday,
shifting our winds to east/northeasterly at 10-20 mph during the
day. With the upper high stretching back into the region however,
temperatures will not cool down at all. In fact, the hottest
temperatures of the forecast are expected tomorrow thanks to a
597-ish decameter high over the Southern Plains. Heat Advisories
are in effect for portions of far west TX through tomorrow morning,
expanding to include some lowlands of southern NM on Saturday.
75th percentile NBM, which has done very well outside of cloudy
days, shows 108 degrees for KELP (4% chance of reaching 110; daily
record is 111).

Due to temperatures rising well into the 100s and some
instability arriving in the afternoon, isolated to scattered
convection develops across the region later in the day. Storm
motion seems a bit faster (10-15 kts) but still slow enough to
result in localized flooding, especially in sensitive areas. With
upslope flow and some forcing tomorrow, a Flood Watch has been
issued for the burn scars in the Sacs. For the first half of next
week, the high remains over the Southern Plains/lower MS valley,
keeping the moisture plume further west. Eastern AZ should see the
best precip chances each day, but areas west of the Divide will
get scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon
hours. The Sacs will likely see daily activity as well just due to
orographic lift. For the El Paso area, mostly dry conditions are
expected underneath the subsident regime of the upper high.
Isolated showers and storms are still possible in the lowlands if
the convective temp is reached or outflows from the mountains
spark new activity.

A slight pattern shift is modeled around midweek as broad upper-
level troughing moves over the northern Rockies. This will pull
some of that moisture to the east, giving eastern areas a better
shot at precip. The Gila Region is most likely to see flooding
impacts through the middle of next week, indicated by WPC`s ERO.
Towards the end of the forecast, a new high settles over the Great
Basin, allowing for a stronger backdoor front to possibly dive
down the Front Range. This scenario would bring additional
moisture and precip chances late next week. It will be a battle
between the dry, subsident air of the ridge and the surface front.
After tomorrow, temperatures will hold near or just above normal
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. CU buildup has
begun in the mountains late this AM and should continue in the
lowlands this afternoon. Isolated SHRA drift towards KTCS and
KDMN later in the day with higher confidence of direct impacts at
KTCS. VCSH has been added for KTCS with amendments possible. KLRU
and KELP have very slight chances (~10%) of seeing a shower or
storm today. Mid-high clouds linger into the overnight. W-NW winds
AOB 10kts continue with sporadic gusts this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period.
Monsoonal moisture holds in place, focusing over western areas. A
backdoor front arrives on Saturday, shifting winds to easterly and
becoming breezy behind the front. The mountains and areas west of
the Rio Grande will have the best chances for daily shower and
thunderstorm activity. Flash flooding and debris flows are
possible over the sensitive burn scars near Ruidoso. Somewhat
drier conditions are expected in eastern areas into the middle of
next week. Fuels will continue to moisten as the monsoonal pattern
and daily rain chances persist. Temperatures remain near or above
normal through the period, hottest on Saturday.

Min RHs range from 15-30% in the lowlands, 20-40% in the
mountains. Vent rates will be good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84 108  82 103 /  20  30  30  20
Sierra Blanca            74 100  71  95 /  30  30  20  20
Las Cruces               80 107  77 101 /  20  30  50  20
Alamogordo               73 102  69  97 /  10  30  30  20
Cloudcroft               58  79  53  74 /  10  40  30  30
Truth or Consequences    77 102  75  97 /  10  30  40  20
Silver City              70  95  68  91 /  20  50  60  40
Deming                   75 105  75  99 /  20  40  60  20
Lordsburg                73 102  74  99 /  10  40  60  30
West El Paso Metro       81 106  79 100 /  20  30  40  20
Dell City                76 104  72  99 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Hancock             78 108  76 102 /  30  30  20  20
Loma Linda               75  99  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                   79 108  78 102 /  20  30  30  20
Santa Teresa             78 105  76  99 /  20  40  50  20
White Sands HQ           82 104  78  97 /  20  40  40  20
Jornada Range            74 105  73  98 /  20  30  40  20
Hatch                    75 106  73 100 /  20  30  50  20
Columbus                 79 105  76  99 /  20  30  60  20
Orogrande                76 103  73  97 /  10  30  30  20
Mayhill                  63  89  58  84 /  10  50  20  30
Mescalero                62  91  58  85 /  10  40  30  30
Timberon                 62  88  55  83 /  10  40  20  20
Winston                  64  93  62  88 /  20  50  50  40
Hillsboro                74  99  71  93 /  20  50  60  30
Spaceport                72 103  69  96 /  20  30  40  20
Lake Roberts             64  93  64  91 /  20  60  50  40
Hurley                   70  98  69  94 /  20  40  60  20
Cliff                    68 103  68 101 /  10  40  40  30
Mule Creek               70  97  71  94 /  10  40  40  40
Faywood                  72  98  71  93 /  20  40  60  30
Animas                   73 102  72  99 /  10  40  60  40
Hachita                  73 103  72  98 /  20  40  60  30
Antelope Wells           71 101  70  96 /  30  50  60  40
Cloverdale               66  96  67  93 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-
     410-411-427>429.

     Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson