962
FXUS64 KEWX 011708
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mostly clear skies prevail across the region overnight, but expect
to see some possible increase in low clouds by morning. However S/SW
flow should keep the overall coverage of cloud cover lower than in
previous days. Temperatures remain in the lower 80s and with the
slightly less cloud cover, lows by morning should be in the middle
to upper 70s for most locations. High temperatures this afternoon
will be in the upper 90s to near 102 degrees once again. However,
the S/SW winds should allow for more efficient mixing this afternoon
that will lead to lower dewpoints. This should keep afternoon heat
index values below Heat Advisory criteria and another advisory is
not needed. With the drier air, not expecting much if any isolated
shower activity like previous days in the Coastal Plains.

For tonight, lows should be back in the middle to upper 70s across
the region with partly cloudy skies. Models are showing highs
Tuesday a bit warmer with highs in the upper 90s to 103 degree
range. Afternoon humidity values should remain low enough to keep
heat index values from reaching advisory criteria once again.
Otherwise, a pretty stable short-term period of the forecast besides

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The ridge axis will have shifted into the southeastern CONUS by
Tuesday night, resulting in "slightly" cooler afternoons with highs
in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 100-108 range. As the
soil continues to dry out from Spring rains, expect those slightly
higher dewpoints to continue mixing out a bit more each afternoon.
That should keep our heat indices down below heat advisory criteria
for much of the first of week of July.

Our attention turns to the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico as we
approach next weekend into the following week. Hurricane Beryl
is approaching the Windward Islands with significant impacts. Once
the storm enters the Caribbean, it is expected to continue on its
westward journey and encounter increased vertical wind shear in the
central and western Caribbean by mid to late week. Beyond that, it is
unclear if South Central Texas will experience any impacts from this
system. The GFS has been the most consistent global model, bringing
Beryl into south Texas 9 of the last 10 deterministic runs. For now,
we can hope for a greatly weakened storm and perhaps some beneficial
rains, but a lot still has to happen for that to come together. The
best thing we can do is continue watching the trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period with few to
sct fair weather cumulus each afternoon and few to sct low clouds
overnight into each morning. The San Antonio sites may see a brief
instance of MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning. Winds remain light to
moderate from the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 102  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 101  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77 100  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 104  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76 102  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady