686
FXUS62 KFFC 281755
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A weak upper trough extends from the mid-Atlantic states across
the S portion of our County Warning Area (CWA). At the surface, a
weak quasi-stationary front is presently draped across N GA. These
features will continue to aid in shower and thunderstorm development
across the area.

Around midnight, isolated moderate showers developed near the
aforementioned front across N GA. As of this writing, most of that
activity had weakened. However, over the past hour, scattered showers
have begun to develop from near Columbus to Macon. This activity is
moving slowly northward. This area has the highest CAPE values
(around 1000 J/kg), coupled with weak dynamic forcing as well as some
isentropic lift. This activity may begin to weaken over the next
couple of hours as it continues moving into an area of less favorable
instability and forcing. However, this in indicative of the
atmosphere being supportive for more convection once daytime heating
kicks in. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
again today across much of the area, with numerous storms SE of
Macon. Most storms are expected to remain below severe limits,
although an isolated, low-end severe wind gust is possible in the
heaviest thunderstorms due to precipitation loading with precipitable
water values running around 1.75". Additionally, the high atmospheric
moisture content and slow storm motion may lead to some localized
flooding in the heaviest storms.

Dynamic forcing should be on the decline for Saturday, as the surface
front dissipates and the upper level trough weakens. However, models
indicate that precipitable water values will continue to increase.
This, coupled with increased instability, may lead to an uptick of
shower and thunderstorm activity, particularly across the N half of
the CWA. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding this scenario, and
have thus tweaked NBM PoPs down a bit. However, areas N of the
Atlanta metro area will have 70+ PoPs ranging to around 50 percent
near and S of Macon.

Forecast high temperatures each day will range from near 80 in the NE
mountains to the mid 90s across the SE portion of the area (2 to 5
degrees above normal). Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s in
the highest terrain of the NE to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere (10
degrees above normal in the NE, 4 to 7 degrees above normal elsewhere).

/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Beginning the long term period with Sunday, the dampened 500 mb
ridge axis continues over the area and westward into the southwest.
Meanwhile to the north of the ridge, several troughing features
attempt to deepen as they move east every couple of days through the
patten. On the southern edge of these troughs there is just enough
vorticity to move through the ridge and affect portions of GA
through the long term. Models are also forecasting PWATs at 2+
inches through the end of next week which are above the 90th
percentile for this time of year (1.80-1.90"). This in combination
with the pushes of vorticity into the area results in increased rain
chances through the long term. It is also summer which means CAPE
values are forecasted to be between 1000-2000 J/kg every afternoon
and evening resulting in increased thunderstorm chances too. Overall
a very summer like pattern. Despite the increased rain chances most
afternoons, accumulations over the next 7 days range from 0.10"-
1.5", so overall still not a lot of rain.

With the increased moisture, dewpoints will also be increased with
values in the mid 70s through the beginning of next week. This in
addition to the temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s will result
in heat indices being in the 100-104 range Saturday and potentially
up to 108 Sunday. Only minor relief from these heat indices is
expected on Tuesday where heat indices are currently forecasted
below 100. Again overall a very summer like pattern for much of
Georgia as we begin the month of July with above average temps.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Cigs have lifted to cu field around 030. Afternoon convection
likely closer to 20-24Z timeframe for most with VCSH across the
area. Convection will make localized winds variable to gusty,
will generally see E or SE winds at 5 to 10 kts. Winds weaken
overnight and SW tomorrow morning. Cigs drop into early morning
tomorrow, likely a BKN060 or potentially lower. VSBY overnight
generally P6SM, but potential light patchy fog near northern metro
airports. Elevated PoPs for -TSRA late morning tomorrow onward.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Cigs tomorrow morning.
Medium PoPs tomorrow morning.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  74  94 /  60  50  30  60
Atlanta         74  91  76  94 /  40  50  40  60
Blairsville     70  84  69  86 /  40  50  40  70
Cartersville    73  91  73  92 /  30  50  40  70
Columbus        75  93  75  95 /  40  50  30  70
Gainesville     73  90  75  92 /  60  50  40  60
Macon           73  94  74  94 /  40  50  30  60
Rome            74  93  74  94 /  30  50  30  70
Peachtree City  73  92  73  94 /  40  50  30  60
Vidalia         74  95  76  95 /  50  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SM