Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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820 FXUS62 KFFC 251919 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 319 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Overall a pretty quiet near term. Conditions will be hot, with highs reaching into the mid 90s to just over 100. The main reason we are heating up so much is due to the exceptionally dry conditions. This morning`s sounding set a record low PWAT value for the day at 0.7", vs a previous record of 0.82". Dewpoints were dropping slightly quicker than previously forecast, however recent model runs have been doing okay catching this. RH values are still likely to overperform in many places. That said, minimum RH values are expected to drop into the mid 20s across much of central and some of northern GA this afternoon. A Fire Danger statement has been issued. Thankful, a weak shortwave and SW flow will bring a little bit more moisture into the area tomorrow afternoon and night. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of an impinging cold front in Northeast GA later tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow night. However, the next real shot at precipitation will be in the long term period. SM && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Extended forecast largely on track with the previous forecast. More- typical summertime diurnal showers and thunderstorms return during the extended in the wake of the Thursday trough. While there is a small dip in temperatures Thursday and Friday, highs return to near triple digits through the weekend. Heat headlines may be necessary. The previous forecast discussion continues below. 31 Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 As the extended period begins on Wednesday night, a longwave trough will be extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be advancing into north Georgia ahead of this trough and an associated frontal boundary. Precip chances will spread southeastward overnight and into Thursday as the weakening frontal boundary sinks southward through the forecast area. Rain chances will be highest in the afternoon, when temperatures ranging from the low 90s in west Georgia to the upper 90s in east-central Georgia and in the upper 60s to low 70s will combine for strong instability. This instability will lend itself for diurnal enhancement of showers and thunderstorms, and thus PoPs are forecast to range from 40-60% in the afternoon. The frontal boundary is anticipated to stall and wash out by the afternoon, so there will be little in the way of shear for the afternoon storms to work with. While the threat for organized severe weather will be low, a few storms may nonetheless become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds. Southerly low-level flow will likely return to the area Friday into Saturday, which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures, and diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend. It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high temperatures down slightly to account for convective development, highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s from Friday through the end of the period, and heat indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast area. Of particular interest will be some locations in central Georgia, which could see heat index values exceeding 105 this weekend, in which case Fire Danger Statements would be warranted. King && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions to continue. SKC to FEW at 25kft could trickle in overnight. Winds currently vrb to light from NE. Winds drop to vrb to 00000KT with sunset. Winds SW with sunrise tomorrow morning, though will remain below 5KT through at least 15Z. Pds of VRB winds psbl when speeds drop below 4kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High all elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 99 73 96 / 0 10 10 40 Atlanta 74 99 75 95 / 0 0 20 40 Blairsville 66 92 67 88 / 0 10 30 40 Cartersville 69 99 70 94 / 0 10 30 40 Columbus 72 101 75 97 / 0 10 20 50 Gainesville 71 96 74 93 / 0 0 20 40 Macon 71 101 72 98 / 0 10 10 60 Rome 69 100 72 93 / 0 10 40 40 Peachtree City 70 99 72 96 / 0 10 20 50 Vidalia 73 101 75 99 / 0 40 20 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...SM