860
FXUS63 KFGF 131956
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of wildfire smoke will degrade air quality later
  this afternoon into evening in northeast North Dakota into
  northwest and west-central Minnesota.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms both late
  Monday and Tuesday. The main hazards will be gusty winds,
  hail, and flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface trough axis/weak frontal boundary has pushed through the
central CWA, but will wash out and redevelop further north
tonight into tomorrow. Flow becomes more zonal for the start of
the work week, with another shortwave pushing the frontal
boundary back south Tuesday. Broad troughing over the north
central CONUS will bring cooler than average temps and
push most of the instability south of our region through mid to
late week. Some return flow possible by next Sunday.

...Another round of Canadian wildfire smoke arriving...

Satellite loop continues to show band of smoke near the Canadian
border behind the weak front, with visibility down to 3-6SM for
the most part although a couple of obs have been down to 2
miles. The HRRR smoke model as well as Canadian runs have this
area of smoke moving down through all but our far southwestern
counties this evening before shifting east overnight. EPA
sensors do not seem as poor as they were yesterday on air
quality, but smoke is still noticeable and will continue to
mention and message. Smoke should not be as much of an issue
tomorrow as front moves north and south winds return.

...Marginal risk Monday and again Tuesday...

The weak front lifts north toward the Canadian border tomorrow,
and strengthens with some fairly warm and moist air coming into
our southern counties. Joint probabilities for CAPE over 1500
J/kg and deep layer shear over 30 kts are greater than 60
percent along and south of Highway 200. There is also a 30 to 40
percent probability of the same near the Highway 2 corridor, on
account of the uncertainty with placement of the front. Most of
the afternoon convection on Monday looks to fire to our west
closer to the upper trough digging in, but some storms could
sustain themselves eastward into Monday night as the low level
jet gets going. Hail to ping pong balls and winds to 70 mph are
not out of the question. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will
be moving back to the southeast, with instability mainly over
far southeastern ND into west central MN. Much will depend on
how Monday night plays out, but there is a chance for some
isolated severe impacts in our southeast on Tuesday also.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites, but should see at
least a period of MVFR at most sites due to smoke coming down
later this afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR for all
but perhaps KFAR and KBJI by the end of the period. Winds that
are northwest to southwest under 10 kts will shift more
northwesterly with a few gusts to 20 kts this afternoon as a
weak cold front comes through. Light and variable winds by this
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR