


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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810 FXUS63 KFGF 132322 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of wildfire smoke will degrade air quality later this afternoon into evening in northeast North Dakota into northwest and west-central Minnesota. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The main hazards will be gusty winds, hail, and flash flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Smoke continues to sag south this evening covering much of northwest Minnesota north of HWY 2 now. This will remain the main impact overnight into tomorrow with no significant forecast changes. The AQA was extended through 6pm tomorrow for all of northwest Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Synopsis... Surface trough axis/weak frontal boundary has pushed through the central CWA, but will wash out and redevelop further north tonight into tomorrow. Flow becomes more zonal for the start of the work week, with another shortwave pushing the frontal boundary back south Tuesday. Broad troughing over the north central CONUS will bring cooler than average temps and push most of the instability south of our region through mid to late week. Some return flow possible by next Sunday. ...Another round of Canadian wildfire smoke arriving... Satellite loop continues to show band of smoke near the Canadian border behind the weak front, with visibility down to 3-6SM for the most part although a couple of obs have been down to 2 miles. The HRRR smoke model as well as Canadian runs have this area of smoke moving down through all but our far southwestern counties this evening before shifting east overnight. EPA sensors do not seem as poor as they were yesterday on air quality, but smoke is still noticeable and will continue to mention and message. Smoke should not be as much of an issue tomorrow as front moves north and south winds return. ...Marginal risk Monday and again Tuesday... The weak front lifts north toward the Canadian border tomorrow, and strengthens with some fairly warm and moist air coming into our southern counties. Joint probabilities for CAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear over 30 kts are greater than 60 percent along and south of Highway 200. There is also a 30 to 40 percent probability of the same near the Highway 2 corridor, on account of the uncertainty with placement of the front. Most of the afternoon convection on Monday looks to fire to our west closer to the upper trough digging in, but some storms could sustain themselves eastward into Monday night as the low level jet gets going. Hail to ping pong balls and winds to 70 mph are not out of the question. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will be moving back to the southeast, with instability mainly over far southeastern ND into west central MN. Much will depend on how Monday night plays out, but there is a chance for some isolated severe impacts in our southeast on Tuesday also. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail with smoke occasionally dropping vis to 4-6SM otherwise ceiling remaining above 10kft and winds backing from the NW to S/SE overnight into tomorrow with the passage of a weak cold front. Winds could gust up to 20kts in the afternoon for all but BJI. Some scattered showers are possible along the intl border overnight but pops < 30 limit confidence and dissuade even using a prob30. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...TT