889
FXUS63 KFGF 041725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon. Isolated
  severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Minnesota from
  12 pm to 5 pm, with up to 1 inch hail, wind gusts up to 60
  mph, and tornadoes.

- 40 to 50 mph wind gusts with additional showers and
  thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph
  wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A cold front noted in current radar from Fargo to Thief River
Falls is sweeping east across northwest Minnesota this
afternoon with efficient heating ahead of it up to a warm front
from GFK to BJI. MLCAPE > 500 J/Kg in SW North Dakota and WC
Minnesota is already noted in RAP mesoanalysis with this
expected to climb to 1000-1500 J/Kg ahead of the front. Eff bulk
shear of 30- 40 kts parallel to the front will lead to
initially isolated cells growing into clusters. These initially
mini supercell type storms will be the main concern for
producing severe weather as looping low level hodographs with
0-1 SRH over 100 m^2/s^2 will favor rotating storms. The surface
warm front is expected to surge north to the intl border
through the early afternoon with the severe threat following
suit. Main threat for any tornado activity seems to near HWY 2
and north this afternoon and the cold front clearing the western
extent of the threat as it moves east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Synopsis...
The expected 700/500mb wave, 850/700mb warm advection, and a
strong low level jet are currently providing the main lift for
the complex of showers and storms moving into the western FA.
These features will continue to push slowly eastward today. The
upper low or lows will eventually set up across southern Canada
toward the Great Lakes, setting the stage for a windy Wednesday
and Thursday. There is much more uncertainty beyond that, but no
big precipitation producers appear at this point.

...This morning...
As of 2 am, there was a long line of showers and thunderstorms
extending from Western Manitoba all the way down into Nebraska,
moving eastward. It appears there must be a compact wave within
this area just northwest of Jamestown, where there seems to be
some counter-clockwise spin to the echoes. Believe this is why
the models have been showing the highest potential for
precipitation amounts of 1.00 inches or more, mainly north of a
line from Valley City to Baudette. The echoes are weaker and not
as widespread to the south of this line. As mentioned above, the
low level jet is pretty strong (35 to 50 knots) feeding into
this complex, and precipitable water values are around 1.3 to
1.4 inches. Not too much instability around for this time of the
night, but will continue to monitor this area.

...This afternoon...
As mentioned yesterday at this time, there is a conditional
threat for severe storms east of the Red River Valley, mainly
from 1 pm to 4 pm this afternoon. The main hazards would be hail
up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is conditional, as
there is a lot of shower/storm activity going on now (with thick
clouds too), which will continue through the morning. If some
decrease to the clouds can occur later this morning into the
early afternoon east of the Valley, some better instability
could develop. As it stands, some of the CAMs are indicating
afternoon highs to the east of the Valley approaching the upper
70s to around 80, with surface dewpoints climbing to the mid
60s. This is definitely the high end though, even more so if
the clouds/rain hold down any heating there. So the two
scenarios for today (which seem to be shown by the HREF UH
tracks), are first that the clouds/rain hold, and any severe
storms fire east of this FA...or second, a brief window of
decreasing clouds occurs and enough instability develops that a
few severe storms fire east of the Valley from 1 pm to 4 pm.

...Wednesday and Thursday...
There is still a consistent showing in the NBM and other
ensembles for the 700/500mb low to stagnate across southern
Canada to the Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a windy
Wednesday and Thursday, although Wednesday looks slightly more
gusty at this point. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday, with just showers Thursday. The most wind and
shower/thunder activity would be during the afternoons of both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Storms will continue east this afternoon with the cold front
already east of GFK, FAR, and DVL thus only TVF and BJI under
threat for severe convection this afternoon through 23z. Heavy
rain with MVFR ceilings will be the main concern in these areas.
Winds behind the front to 15mph and gusts to 25-30mph are
possible. Winds calming this evening before increasing again
tomorrow morning with gusts to 40 mph west of the valley and up
to 30mph in MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...TT
UPDATE...MM/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM