Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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156 FXUS63 KFGF 181957 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High wind warning through 7pm in the upper Devils Lake basin and to northern Red River Valley. - Potential for a few isolated strong to severe storms in south central North Dakota Sunday afternoon. - Continued shower chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...Synopsis... While minor differences exist through the next 4-5 days ensembles generally show our current zonal flow with upper troughing in the in Alberta and Manitoba breaking down as the upper troughing digs south with embedded shortwaves rotating out of strengthening southwest flow aloft. This will result in a progressive surface pattern with highs in the 60s to low 70s and thunderstorm chances through early next week. The vort max along the Canadian border will continue to produce gusts of 60+ mph this afternoon with an NDAWN recently recording a wind gust to 60 mph as deep mixing and steep lapse rates to 3km have been able to tap into 40+kt flow at 850mb. As the low tracks east winds will subside especially with the loss of heating around 7-9pm. Clear skies tonight on the back side of the low with SW flow aloft bringing another shortwave into the area by Sunday afternoon. On Some guidance shows a window for isolated strong or severe thunderstorms (primary threat large hail) south of 1-94. BL Td`s increasing and steepening mid lapse rates are shown to contribute to instability in the 1000-1500 J/KG range while effective shear could be in the 40-50kt range. Due to the high variation in surface pattern (frontal zone may not set up this far northeast) and storm coverage could remain more sparse. Worth monitoring though. could see scattered areas receive over 0.25" with any storms that do develop. Continuing into Monday night/Tuesday another wave ejects east out the upper trough and begins to deepen in the into a surface low in South Dakota bringing warm air advection and possible fgen into southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Probs for over 1" are around 30 percent in these areas. progressive rounds of showers and storms will then continue through the week into next weekend with zonal to southwest flow aloft and shortwave activity persisting. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Strong westerly winds will continue this afternoon across ND taf sites (DVL, GFK, FAR) with 25mph gusty 35mph (occasionally 40+ mph) through 4pm. Showers have exited the area but developing cumulus south of low north of the intl border with keep MVFR ceilings for most this afternoon with SCT to BKN at 030 to 050. VFR by 01z as clouds dissipate while winds dying off by 10-11pm. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014-015. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ016-024- 026>030-038-039-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT