872
FXUS65 KFGZ 260524
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity then slowly
decreases and becomes more focused over eastern Arizona by the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Persistent light showers, and a few isolated
thunderstorms, remain across much of Yavapai County and portions
of northern Navajo County this evening. Expect light stratiform
rain to continue through much of the evening/overnight hours, with
another round of active weather returning tomorrow afternoon.
Only minor updates were made to the forecast tonight. Overall,
everything remains largely on track, so check out the previous
discussion for more details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 PM MST/...The remnants of a well-defined MCV
is lurking in the Phoenix area this afternoon, with plenty of action
in our CWA. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai County this
evening, on a northwesterly track. This could potentially prolong
convection later into the night. These features don`t always pan
out, especially if moving into a worked-over airmass, but we will
need to keep an eye on it.

Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward
on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our
north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you
may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit.

From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much
drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary
will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity
to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return
heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we
have seen for the last week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 26/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, minus brief MVFR
conditions in SHRA/TSRA. Mostly -SHRA is expected through 18Z,
with stronger storms forecast for Wednesday afternoon.
Gusty/erratic outflow winds will be possible with generally SW
winds 5-15 kts otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 27/06Z through Saturday 29/06Z...Look for
mostly VFR conditions with periods of MVFR conditions from heavy
TSRA/SHRA. Chances for showers/thunderstorms likely on Thursday
before drier conditions return over the weekend. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near storm development, with SW winds 10-20 kts
expected otherwise.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall,
hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis
shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim northeast and eastward. Winds
on Wednesday will mainly be driven by outflows. By Thursday, expect
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, especially
for the central and western zones.

Friday through Sunday...Most of the central and western zones become
drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the
eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff