746
FXUS63 KFSD 282325
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small threat for severe weather exists this afternoon over
  parts of northwest IA.

- Rivers across the area have crested or are presently at
  crest. Should see levels continue to slowly trend downward
  this weekend, with largely dry conditions expected to prevail.

- Below normal temperatures continue into Monday, with highs
  largely in the upper 60s to 70s.

- Active pattern expected heading into the new week as westerly
  flow sets up aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

CURRENT THROUGH SUNDAY: Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers
and storms pushing eastward across northwest Iowa ahead of an
advancing sfc cold front. Can`t rule out the possibility of seeing
an isolated gust up to 60 MPH, but think the primary hazards with
any storms will remain confined to lightning and brief heavy
downpours. Otherwise, look for dry conditions to return by sunset
and winds to briefly become light and variable. Direction then
shifts northwesterly prior to daybreak, with morning lows forecast
to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Expect below normal temperatures and dry conditions to prevail
through the weekend as sfc high pressure builds overhead. As such,
have afternoon highs rising into the upper 60s to 70s, with gusts
between 15 to 25 MPH possible each day. Certainly a good weekend for
outdoor activities and yard work, so get out an enjoy it if you can!
As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see even cooler
temperatures return Saturday night, with lows falling into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

MONDAY AND BEYOND: Upper level trough over the western CONUS ejects
eastward across the central Plains, resulting in a fairly active
weather pattern across our area for much of the upcoming week. While
a few showers may be possible by daybreak Monday, most guidance
generally agrees the better chances (60%+) will occur during the
afternoon and evening as we become situated in the warm sector
ahead of an advancing cold front. While there is still a bit of time
to speculate on the finer details, want to point out that SPC`s
latest Day 4 Outlook does have our area outlined in a 15% risk of
seeing severe weather. Thus, we encourage you to continue to monitor
the forecast for the latest updates - especially if you have any
outdoor events or activities planned.

Scattered showers and storms continue Tuesday, with a lull in
activity likely across most of our area Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft continues the wave train for the latter half of the week,
resulting in renewed chances for chances for showers and storms.
Given the recent rains and moisture rich soils in place, will need
to keep an eye on potential rainfall totals and the likelihood of
training storms since it won`t take much to cause additional
flooding concerns. Otherwise, look for temperatures to rebound back
into the mid 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows generally in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions initially will give way to a mix of VFR/MVFR
ceilings as stratus moves in by Saturday morning with the cold
front. Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear and
quiet conditions continue across the area as a cumulus field
slowly pushes southeastwards. Expect mostly clear conditions to
transition to overcast skies just after daybreak as low hanging
stratus arrives into areas mostly north of Hwy-18 with the cold
front. While MVFR ceilings seem likely through the mid-morning,
the same can`t be said for any precipitation chances. While
there is some low confidence in a few isolated sprinkles along
the front, kept any mention out of the TAFs for now. Otherwise,
northwesterly winds will continue to decrease overnight before
increasing again just after daybreak with gusts between 20-30
mph possible.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Gumbs