Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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910 FXUS64 KFWD 172032 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Low-level moisture and instability will surge northward over the next few days, resulting diurnally-driven chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area. The moisture plume is located below 700 mb, underneath an area of mid/upper-level subsidence. These counteracting forces (low-level lift & mid/upper-level subsidence) will keep the coverage of precip isolated and the thunderstorm chances low. The exception to this will be across the southeastern third of our area where 30-40 kts of southeast flow aloft will result in an enhanced seabreeze moving into the area late in the afternoon. Even then, storms should be quick-moving and largely confined to outflow boundaries. Convective activity should wane with the loss of heating each evening, resulting in mild and humid nights. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ A tropical disturbance will be making its way inland along the Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday night with its associated plume of tropical moisture surging northward into North and Central Texas. Notable warm/moist advection will result in increasing showers and isolated storms beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday as the system slowly moves west/northwest over the course of a couple of days. Not much has changed regarding the expected precipitation totals for our region, with the bulk of the precipitation and significant rainfall totals still expected to remain to our south. Average rainfall totals through Thursday will range from 1-3" across Central Texas and near 1/2" or less across North Texas. It`s worth noting, however, that some areas will receive no measurable rainfall and others will receive more than the average amounts mentioned above. The latter is especially true for Central Texas where slow-moving and/or training showers and thunderstorms may produce isolated rainfall totals between 3-5". The most likely area for these higher rainfall totals will be south of a line from Cisco to Palestine. While there is medium confidence these higher-end rainfall totals will occur somewhere across Central Texas, confidence in a precise location(s) and frequency is quite low at this time. Hopefully, this will come more into focus over the next couple of days. Regardless, these higher end totals will certainly cause flood impacts. While flooding will be less likely across North Texas, PWATs are expected to reach 2-2.5" across various portions of the forecast area on Wednesday. Therefore, any showers and storms that develop in North and Central Texas collectively will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is currently forecasting PWATs near 2.40" for portions of North Texas, which would exceed our daily maximum PWAT (for June 19th) of 2.22". With all of this in mind, ensure you keep a close eye on the forecast for the latest information throughout the week. The tropical disturbance will move further west on Thursday, eventually bringing an end to our rain chances from east to west. Rain-free weather is expected through the weekend, but hot temperatures are expected with heat index values potentially returning to the triple digits. Low rain chances look to return early next week as we enter the final week of June. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ A scattered Cu field over the area will continue through the afternoon before dissipating this evening. Isolated showers will continue, with the highest coverage remaining across Central and East Texas. The coverage of precip will be lower in/near the D10 terminals, therefore no wx groups were added to the D10 TAFs. MVFR will surge north tonight, overspreading all terminals in the few hours straddling midnight. The stratus will linger for much of the morning, slowly lifting/scattering into a Cu field by the early afternoon. South flow will prevail through the valid TAF period. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 75 83 74 / 5 10 5 30 30 Waco 75 90 74 81 74 / 5 20 10 60 50 Paris 72 90 72 86 72 / 10 20 5 20 20 Denton 74 92 74 82 72 / 5 10 5 30 30 McKinney 74 91 73 82 72 / 5 20 5 30 30 Dallas 75 92 75 82 74 / 5 20 10 30 30 Terrell 73 90 73 83 72 / 10 20 10 40 30 Corsicana 75 92 74 81 74 / 10 20 20 50 40 Temple 75 92 74 79 73 / 5 20 20 60 60 Mineral Wells 75 92 73 82 72 / 0 10 5 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$