350
FXUS64 KFWD 261100
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A complex of storms continues to move south through Kansas and
Missouri, with a few storms ahead of the main line in eastern
Oklahoma. Similar to the earlier cluster of storms (mentioned in
the previous discussion below), this system should weaken as it
approaches North Texas, but a few showers and storms may skirt
eastern North Texas this morning. The main change with this
morning`s update was to adjust PoPs based on latest trends, which
included increasing PoPs late this evening/overnight. Latest high-
res guidance is in good agreement that another complex of storms
will develop to our northeast this evening with the passage of a
shortwave trough. The center of an upper level ridge will remain
shunted far to our west, allowing northeast flow aloft to bring
this complex of storms into North and Central Texas late this
evening. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity,
gusty winds would be the main threat. All activity would come to
an end by early Thursday morning.

Additionally, low PoPs were maintained this afternoon across our
eastern zones as we may have a couple lingering outflow boundaries
from the overnight/morning convection that could serve as a focus
for isolated convective development. However, this potential is
low at this time with most locations expected to remain rain-free
during the afternoon hours.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

A cluster of storms in southern Oklahoma has exhibited a
weakening trend as it continues moving south late this evening.
Most (if not all) of this activity is expected to dissipate prior
to reaching the Red River, but low (20%) PoPs have been
introduced through the morning hours in the event a few showers or
storms are able to survive the journey into North Texas. We`ll
have additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. The first will be associated with a complex of
thunderstorms that has developed from Nebraska into Iowa and
Missouri. This system will continue moving south and may skirt
portions of eastern North and Central Texas later today.
Additional thunderstorm development may occur with any outflow
boundary from the dissipating cluster of storms in Oklahoma,
mainly during peak heating this afternoon. A few strong to
marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours, but marginal deep
layer shear will preclude a greater severe weather threat from
materializing. Low storm chances will linger into Wednesday night
across our eastern zones with the passage of another weak
shortwave, but rain chances should shut off as mid-level ridging
builds in again on Thursday.

Aside from the rain chances, summer heat will continue to plague
the region. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to
around 103 degrees with heat index values between 105-110 for most
locations. While there is some bust potential with the current
Heat Advisory today given the potential for rain, no adjustments
will be made due to the uncertainty in location and coverage of
storms through the afternoon. Heat Advisory criteria will be met
for most locations again on Thursday, so expect an extension
through Thursday at some point tonight or later today.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/Thursday Night Through Tuesday/

The upper ridge, which has been centered west of the Lone Star
State the past few days, will briefly deamplify while shifting to
the east Thursday night through Saturday. Increasing subsidence
will keep the weather rain free and continued hot with highs
ranging from the middle 90s to around 103. Dew points will also
stay in the 70s overall, except for some brief afternoon mixing
into the upper 60s across the west. Therefore, afternoon heat
index values will still average between 105 and 110 for most
locations.

The brief deamplification of the ridge will be a result of a
strong shortwave sweeping across the Northern and Central
Plains. The passage of the shortwave will also send a cold front
southward through the Central Plains Saturday. The front is
progged to stall over Oklahoma on Sunday, but it will be a source
of lift for thunderstorms. A few storms could briefly reach the
northeast zones as they propagate southeastward on the periphery
of the upper ridge, mainly Sunday afternoon.

High pressure will become centered near the ArkLaTex early next
week, keeping the hot and humid weather in place as we start the
month of July. Temperatures and heat index values will be very
similar to this week. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will likely
remain for part, if not all of the region early next week.

One thing that could become an issue as we move deeper into
summer will be the threat for fire starts as fine fuels begin to
dry under the extreme heat. The good news is that this time of the
year, wind speeds are typically light, keeping the threat for
significant fire spread low. Recent high humidity has also helped
to keep the overall threat for fire starts and spread low but
humidity can change quickly with even subtle airmass modification
and wind shifts. Again, there is no immediate fire threat expected
with this forecast package, but the threat may start to creep up
across parts of North and Central Texas as we move through July.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus is developing across Central Texas and will continue
to spread north over the next couple of hours, though MVFR
ceilings should remain patchy across D10. A complex of storms in
Kansas/Missouri continues to move south this morning with a few
storms in eastern Oklahoma ahead of the main line. This activity
should weaken as it approaches the region, but a few showers and
storms may skirt eastern North Texas. Fortunately, this activity
is expected to remain well northeast of the terminals.

The rest of the day should be mostly rain-free, but isolated
convective development will be possible in eastern North and
Central Texas. Better storm chances are expected this evening as
another complex of storms approaches from the northeast. This
system will have a better chance of impacting the terminals late
this evening, but uncertainty is still quite high in how it will
evolve as it moves west/southwest.

Winds will remain out of the south near 8 to 12 knots through the
period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81 101  82 100 /  10  20   0   0   0
Waco                97  78  99  79  98 /   5  30   0   0   0
Paris               97  75  94  77  97 /  20  30   5   0   0
Denton             101  77 100  79 100 /  10  20   0   0   0
McKinney           100  78  98  79  99 /  20  30   0   0   0
Dallas             100  80 101  82 100 /  20  20   0   0   0
Terrell             97  77  97  79  97 /  20  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  78  98  79  98 /  10  30   0   0   0
Temple              98  77  99  77  98 /   0  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  78 102  78 100 /   5  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$