293
FXUS63 KGID 311736
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through the weekend
  into next week.

- Details remain uncertain, but the best chance for severe
  weather appears to be Sunday evening into Sunday night.

- Other than today, near-normal temperatures in the 80s are
  expected through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weakly-sheared and slow-moving thunderstorms persist into the
early morning. This has resulted in a few areas of locally heavy
rain, but nothing like the event that impacted portions of
Sherman and Howard Counties yesterday. At least a few
thunderstorms are likely to persist through most of the day
today as a broad upper shortwave moves across the northern
Plains. Overall predictability is low with this activity.
Storms cannot be ruled out at any point today/tonight, but there
will be plenty of dry time in-between showers/storms. Shear
will remain fairly low, and CAPE will remain somewhat limited
due to continued cloud cover, therefore the overall severe
threat is low. Locally heavy rain will be the primary threat
with any storms that develop, though a few isolated strong
storms may produce small hail and gusty winds.

The current expectation is for shower/thunderstorm activity to
move out of the area by daybreak Saturday morning. That said,
the 00Z and 06Z runs of the HRRR show a cluster of storms
redeveloping and tracking over the northern half of the area
Saturday morning. Unfortunately there is not much support for
this solution amongst the other CAMs.

By late Saturday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop to our west, with one or
more clusters eventually moving through portions of central
Nebraska and Kansas Saturday evening into the overnight. These
storms will have more shear (35-50kt 0-6km) and instability
(1500-3000J/kg MLCAPE) to work with than today`s storms, so
severe hail/wind is possible. As such, SPC has a Marginal Risk
across the entirety of our forecast area.

For Sunday, strong southerly flow is expected ahead a better
defined upper shortwave. The daytime will likely end up being
dry/capped for most of the area, but the increasingly
warm/moist air will set the stage for one or more clusters of
storms to arrive from the northwest Sunday evening into the
overnight. As of now, this appears to be our best chance for
severe weather over the next 7 days.

Low-end rain/thunderstorm chances persist through Monday, with
better chances returning with another upper shortwave and
frontal system Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Today through Tuesday night, global ensembles show a medium to
high chance (40-80%) to see at least an additional 1 inch of
rain across the ENTIRE area, and the northeastern half of the
area has a 20-40% chance to see 2 or more inches of additional
rain.

Ensembles favor a drying pattern late next week into the
following weekend, but confidence in this occurring is still
not overly high. We may trend drier overall, but it doesn`t look
like rain/storms will completely "shut off" by an means. Many
deterministic runs show continued systems into the middle of
June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms will be a concern for the first couple hours of
this TAF period as another upper level shortwave disturbance
gradually pushes east. Once it passes, have dry conditions
through the rest of the period. Currently have MVFR conditions
at both terminals, which will also be a concern for the first
few hours, but VFR conditions are expected to return later this
afternoon. Unfortunately it looks to be a short-lived break,
with models showing the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings
developing again later tonight/early Saturday morning. Overall
winds through the period are on the lighter side, one exception
may be in the wake of this wave mid-afternoon, could have a
brief period of stronger winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP