909
FXUS61 KGYX 302251
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
651 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The severe threat has ended, although a few showers are expected
ahead of a cold front in the mountains this evening. Cooler and
less stifling humidity will arrive for Monday with highs in the
70s. A few showers will be possible in southern areas as the
upper level low lingers just offshore. High pressure builds in
on Tuesday with quiet and seasonable weather into Wednesday. The
high slides offshore Wednesday night into Thursday returning a
chance for showers and increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...HAve dropped the SVR watch, just watching one cell in
far SE NH, that is showing some vitality, but unlikely to reach
severe at this point given the unfavorable air. Otherwise just
made a few tweaks to going forecast based on current obs.

5 PM...The broken line of convection that run runs from near
KBGR SW to into Sullivan county NH is the line between the very
unstable air S and more stable air to the N. While there are
TSRA moving into this area ahead of the front, these storms are
not expected to be severe, and have adjusted the watch to just
include those areas along and S of that line.

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect through 8 PM. A hot and
humid airmass has brought heat inidices into the 90s across
much of the region. The cirrus from BOX storms has alleviated
the heating across southern counties and help limit the
instability. Afternoon special sounding indicated poor midlevel
lapse rates, a limiting factor for the potential severe
magnitude. As heating continues, new cells will be able to
harness building instability and an impressive amount of shear
to continue the risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind
gusts remain the primary threat, but isolated hail is also
possible. The risk will push offshore by 7-8 PM. Dew points and
PWATs are high this afternoon with heavy rainfall in any storms,
but the progressive nature of the storms will limit the risk
for flooding.

Strong cold air advection behind the front is bringing in a
drier and much cooler airmass overnight. The drier air should
inhibit fog for most areas, but valleys and recently worked
over areas could see some patchy development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will drift offshore on Monday, and the cold
pool aloft could support a few showers, best chances in near
the coast and S NH. These showers will be limited in coverage
and duration, while most of the area will remain dry but under
mostly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds. High pressure over
the Upper Great Lakes will make its way across our region
Monday evening. Quiet and dry weather Monday night as high
pressure moves through the region. Lows will be found in the
upper 40s in the north to low to mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Enjoy the cool and dry start to the work week because heat and
humidity will return. The area will be under the influence of a
mid and upper level ridge through Wednesday, but an upper level
trough will drive the ridge southward by Thursday. The surface
high will slide offshore, with a warm front pulling in heat and
humid air back into the region late Wednesday. This will likely
be accompanied by showers in the afternoon. Southerly flow
becomes more established leading to hot and humid conditions
late week starting on the 4th. Aloft there will be fairly zonal
flow, with a series of weak upper level troughs Thursday through
Saturday. A pre-frontal trough could keep some showers possible
Thursday, with a series of weak frontal passages that will
support scattered showers and thunderstorm activity with low
confidence on timing through the weekend. Despite any cold
frontal passages, the overall airmass will remain warm and
humid, fairly typical of July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Increased risk of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions this
evening. Highest confidence for TS at terminals are MHT, RKD,
and AUG. Drier air moving into the region Sunday night favors
VFR conditions into Monday.


Long Term...VFR expected Monday night through Wed, with
possible valley fog Monday night. Then more widespread flight
restrictions possible Wed night into early Thu in SHRA/TSRA and
some fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Increased thunderstorm risk this evening. SCA
conditions will wane overnight as winds slacken as a cold front
passes offshore by morning. The cold front will help erode any
lingering low stratus near the midcoast. N/NE winds will
prevail on Monday with high pressure building over the region
Tue- Wed...continuing quiet marine conditions.

Long Term...Swell from Beryl will arrive late Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing minimal rise in wave heights but could raise
rip current risk. The high will drift east on Thursday with a
warm front lifting north, bringing heat and humid conditions.
The pattern remains unsettled under zonal flow by the end of the
week into the weekend with the passage of weak frontal
boundaries. Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Conditions are forecast to be below Small
Craft Advisory criteria after this evening.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Jamison
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...