169
FXUS64 KHGX 282039
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

TODAY IS INTERNATIONAL CAPS LOCK DAY, SO I`M THROWING IT BACK TO THE
OLD SCHOOL DAYS...I PROMISE THAT I`M NOT YELLING AT Y`ALL (NO CAP).
THE HEAT GOES ON WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 90S AND OUR
FIFTH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS OF ~2PM CDT, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S BUT THE BIG STORY IS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT ARE IN
THE REALM OF 106-112F. EVEN GALVESTON HAS REACHED A HEAT INDEX OF
111F THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINING
OVERHEAD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN.
THE SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PW VALUES (1.7-2.0") HAVE HELPED
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE
WEST OF I-45. THIS IS OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WHERE THINGS
BUILD UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, SO THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SHOWER TO COOL THINGS OFF
TEMPORARILY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY RUNS THROUGH 7PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

EXPECTING A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 106-112F RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 12PM CDT ON SATURDAY AND RUN THROUGH 7PM CDT IN THE
EVENING, SO THAT`LL BE SIX DAYS IN A ROW WITH A HEAT ADVISORY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN FIND BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING BACK INLAND FROM THE
GULF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
LIFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE 20-30% RANGE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO CREST THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY, PLEASE CONTINUE TO KEEP HEAT SAFETY AT
THE FOREFRONT OF ANY PLANS THAT YOU MAKE (ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE
OUTDOORS). KNOW THE LOCATIONS OF THE NEAREST COOLING CENTERS, KNOW
THE SIGNS OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, WEAR LOOSE/LIGHT-COLORED
CLOTHING ALONG WITH SUNSCREEN, AND ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON`T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS AS WELL! IF THE
GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR HAND, THEN IT IS TOO HOT FOR
THEIR PAWS. STAY SAFE, STAY COOL, STAY HYDRATED.

BATISTE

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

I`m old, but no caps.

A somewhat typical summer time weather pattern should continue for
SE TX through the long term as broad mid/upper level ridging ling-
ers over the S/SE CONUS. This will result in warm/hot temperatures
along with chances of mainly daytime showers/storms with the occa-
sional easterly wave (moving in from across the northern Gulf) and
seabreeze interaction as we progress through the week. Per current
runs, we could see some isolated POPs each day for mostly the I-10
corridor south to the coast. Otherwise, the main forecast issue is
going to be the continuation of these (above normal) temperatures.
Highs should generally run in the mid to upper 90s with some areas
likely reaching 100-101 daily for the long term. Lows will are go-
ing to range in the mid to upper 70s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions and southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail
through the evening hours. Isolated showers have begun to develop
south of I-10 this morning and will drift northward through the
afternoon. The sites with the best potential of an afternoon
downpour are SGR/HOU/IAH/CXO. By sunset, any convection that
develops will dissipate. The attention then turns to another round
of MVFR ceilings and slightly reduced visibilites due to patchy
fog at the northern sites (CXO and northward). After 09Z-10Z, MVFR
ceilings are expected to build back in and should prevail till
15Z when southerly winds around 10 knots pick back up.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Guidance continues to show a broad area of low pressure (currently
in the western Caribbean) eventually sliding into the Bay of Camp-
eche by Sun (then tracking WNW into Mexico Sun night/Mon). Not ex-
pecting all that much in terms of local impact, save for increased
seas as longer period 4-6ft swells track into the upper TX coastal
waters by Sat night or early Sun. Otherwise...mostly light to mod-
erate onshore winds will prevail. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  98  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  80  96  79  97 /   0  30   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  90 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...41