259
FXUS64 KHUN 250933
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
433 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

At the surface, a weak front which pushed south through our area
early Monday morning has reached into central AL. High pressure has
moved into the OH valley, edging into the TN valley. Dew points have
dipped into the 50s across much of middle and eastern TN, with 60s
over north AL. With a clear sky and calm winds, radiational cooling
has dropped temperatures into the upper 60s in eastern portions of
north AL into southern middle TN, with 70s to around 80 in the HSV
metro and Quad Cities.

The surface ridge will shift a bit further south today, allowing for
drier air to cover the area. Persistence looks like best forecast
today after looking at Monday`s highs, so will go close to that, just
shy of 100 at KMSL and KHSV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Another relatively "cool" night is expected again tonight with lower
to middle 60s east and upper 60s to around 70 west. More hot
temperatures on Wednesday, although the higher dew points near 70
will reside in NW AL into middle TN where heat index values of
100-105 are expected, with lower 60s further east in northeast AL and
eastern portions of southern middle TN where heat index values may
stay in the 90s once again. A rather potent MCS will be dropping
southeast through the corn belt and into the OH Valley Wednesday as a
shortwave and cold front drive southeast as well. Whether the MCS
reaches all the way into southern middle TN or north AL is debatable
at this point, but peak heating and westerly advection of
moisture/Theta-E will likely help to generate new convection in
advance of the MCS and/or outflow boundary. Or, the outflow boundary
itself may help activate convection as well. In either case, still
looks like our best shot of showers and thunderstorms in a while. A
few strong thunderstorms will be possible due to moderate CAPE and
steep low level lapse rates. But thankfully, deep bulk shear values
will be modest at best. Convective chances will linger through
Wednesday night, but I suspect the loss of peak heating will signal a
decrease at least in more widespread activity until the front moves
through.

Thursday will be a nice break from the heat and added humidity that
arrives ahead of the front on Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

From Friday into the weekend, southerly flow will redevelop in low
levels, elevating dew points into the lower to perhaps middle 70s.
With highs staying in the lower to middle 90s, heat index values may
reach 105+ in some areas, mainly central and west both days. The good
news is, pulse afternoon convection is expected to develop Saturday
afternoon, and then another cold front undercuts the 5h ridge across
the region and arrives sometime Sunday depending on the model
solution. So, we may get breaks in the heat at times both days due
to thunderstorms. However, the front will be weakening and will
likely lift back north by late Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17