656
FXUS64 KHUN 261058
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
558 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A rather complicated forecast setup takes shape for today,
especially in regards to thunderstorm development across the
forecast area this afternoon/evening. Early this morning, two
MCS`s are currently propagating south and east. The first one
across southeast MO, northeast AR, and western TN has generally
had a weakening trend the last few hours. However, if this can
hold together, this could result in some low chances of
showers/storms around daybreak in northwest AL. The second MCS is
across southeast NE and northern MO. This one has really
intensified over the last hour or two, with a history of a 90mph
wind gust in Omaha, NE. Overall, the CAMs are struggling to
resolve these two clusters, but they are more bullish on the one
further to the northwest. There is decent agreement that this
system will race SSE into AR, MS, and western AL by this
afternoon. The good news is that the latest forecast runs continue
to miss our local forecast area to the west. Unfortunately, as is
the case with summertime convection in the Southeast, things can
change rather quickly, especially with mesoscale driven features.
That being said, we do expect an increase in convection across the
TN Valley this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven along
residual outflow boundaries from the aformentioned MCS`s. Some
could become strong to severe producing gusty to damaging winds,
given a rather unstable environment. But, the lack of any
appreciable wind shear should limit storm organization.

Prior to any storms developing this afternoon, another very warm
day is expected with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to
upper 90s. Moisture advection is expected during the day, which
will bring dewpoints back into the upper 60s. This will bring heat
index values into the 100F-104F range, just below advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection should gradually wane with the loss of daytime heating
this evening. A mild night is in store with overnight lows only
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fog may be possible if
there are breaks in the cloud cover, especially in locations that
see some rainfall this afternoon. However, it should be sparse in
coverage.

A relatively "cool" day is forecast on Thursday with afternoon
highs only expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is due
to lingering clouds in the morning and the potential for more
thunderstorms during peak heating hours. After several days in
the upper 90s, this will feel somewhat refreshing. With the
convection being diurnally driven, expect scattered coverage and
for storms to end by the evening.

The upper and mid level ridge begins to shift back east to end the
work week. Southwesterly flow at the sfc will advect in both a
warmer and more moisture rich airmass. As a result, afternoon
highs once again soar into the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s
on Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s,
which would push heat index values above 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours. However, the blended guidance may be a bit too
high with the dewpoints, especially if the area does not see any
appreciable rainfall over the next few days. This will be
something to keep on eye on in future forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions continue through the morning before chances of
thunderstorms increase from west to east this afternoon. Expect
thunderstorms to remain quite scattered, but if thunderstorms move
over the terminals there will be reductions in both visibilities
and ceilings. Storm coverage should decrease after sunset, but at
the same time some low level stratus moves across northern
Alabama. At this time kept conditions VFR, but some guidance is
suggesting MVFR ceilings.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH