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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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737 FXUS64 KHUN 021654 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1154 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1059 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A strong subtropical high (centered across the Arklamiss region earlier this morning) is predicted to expand east-northeastward into the TN Valley over the course of the day, resulting in drying profiles aloft and the development of a pronounced mid-level subsidence inversion that will inhibit the development of convective updrafts today. In the low-levels, moderately strong SSE flow of 10-15 MPH (with occasional gusts up to 20 MPH) will exist as a ridge noses southwestward around the base of the southern Appalachians from a parent surface high over the northern Mid-Atlantic states. A shallow layer of enhanced low-level moisture advection in this regime has contributed to widespread low stratus clouds across the eastern half of the forecast area. The clouds should be slow to erode over the course of the afternoon and we have increased sky cover in this region and reduced the max temperature forecast to reflect highs in the u80s-l90s. Based on current satellite data, broken-overcast conditions appear unlikely to reach northwest AL, where highs will reach the mid 90s (with HI values in the 100-105F range). && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The aforementioned upper ridge will persist through midweek, but begin to flatten Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave trough makes its way over the north-central CONUS and into the Midwest. Surface high pressure will be shunted off the eastern seaboard but be stretched a bit, maintaining its hold over the Appalachians. This is due to the approach of a cold front (over the Midwest on Wednesday) that looks to stall over the mid- Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Chances of showers and storms steadily increase from midweek on, with very low chances (10-20%) on Wednesday to low to medium chances (30-50%) on Thursday (highest chances during peak heating in the afternoon each day). As has been the trend with model guidance the past couple of days, instability looks plentiful but shear will be meager. Therefore, while severe weather is not anticipated, storms will have the potential of producing brief, heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds (usual of the summertime). The other, and honestly biggest, concern will be the heat for both Wednesday and Thursday (Independence Day). Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s, with some spots in the upper 90s, both days. This, combined with elevated moisture and warm overnight temperatures (in the 70s Tuesday through Thursday nights) will lead to areas along/west of I-65 on Wednesday and most of the area on Thursday being in a major risk of heat-related impacts according to the NWS HeatRisk tool. Looking specifically at heat indices, we`re likely facing between 105-109 degrees especially along and west of I-65 on Wednesday and between 103-110 degrees area-wide on Thursday. This may necessitate a Heat Advisory for portions of the area on Wednesday and perhaps an Excessive Heat Warning on Thursday should these trends continue. Stay tuned, but in the meantime, please take the heat risk seriously this 4th of July holiday! Plan ahead for dangerous heat conditions! Take frequent breaks in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and stay hydrated! && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The center of the high pressure ridge that will bring us the dangerous heat earlier in the week will become squeezed to the SE of the area over the GA/SC/NC coast. To our north, a fairly robust mid/upper trough will swing from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front pushing from the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South region on Friday. Ahead of the front, southerly flow will once again push temperatures into the low to mid 90s -- with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s pushing heat index values above 105 degrees once again. By the afternoon however, the front will be approaching the area with SBCAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg. Subsequently, the forcing mechanism will be in place to trigger high chances (70-80%) for showers and thunderstorms -- some of which could be strong. The boundary will slowly sag south through the area into central Alabama by Saturday. However, since it will remain in the vicinity of the area medium chances for showers/storms (40-60%) will remain in the forecast for Saturday. Cloud cover will help to keep temperatures just a few degrees lower, likely keeping heat indices below Advisory criteria. With the boundary to our south Sunday and Monday, much lower chances for showers/storms are forecast (10-20%) with highs remaining near normal in the lower 90s. The combination of these lower temperatures and dewpoints should keep peak heat index values below 100 degrees through Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Low stratus clouds (within a moderately strong SSE flow regime) persist across the eastern half of northern AL late this morning, with latest satellite data indicating that the clouds are slowly spreading west-northwestward toward MSL. Although cigs may remain in the MVFR category for another 1-2 hours at HSV, deeper mixing this aftn should promote scattering and gradual lifting of the cloud layer, and we will advertise VFR conditions at the beginning of the TAF. Forecast soundings suggest that skies will partially clear around sunset, but that lower stratus will return between Midnight and sunrise on Wednesday. Periods of MVFR cigs will be possible at both terminals btwn 11-15Z, but this has not been indicated in the official forecast attm. Sfc winds will remain from SSE at 8G16 kts this aftn, but should weaken to 5-10 kts around sunset and veer to SW after 12Z Wednesday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...AMP AVIATION...70/DD