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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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488 FXUS64 KHUN 060623 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 907 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Most of the showers and storms have dissipated this evening with lingering isolated activity forming just along a surface cold front currently moving through the area from northwest to southeast. Storms that have developed have struggled to maintain intensity, only resulting in lightning and brief heavy downpours. Otherwise, light winds and decreasing cloud cover are expected overnight with low temps dropping into the upper 60s to mid-70s by Saturday morning. There will be a low chance of fog developing into tomorrow morning primarily over Cullman, Jackson, and Dekalb counties where dew points will remain unmoderated by the approaching frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An upper level trough is currently making its way through the Ohio Valley. This feature is helping to drag a surface front through the TN Valley on Saturday. As this feature moves south, it should help to displace and briefly weaken the upper-level high that has been dominating the weather most of this week. This is expected to help bring us some slightly drier air for both Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs should still warm into the 90s, still very warm. The good news, is that any excessive heat risk should remain low as the apparent temperatures are forecasted to feel like the ambient temperature. Winds should also remain fairly light from the north. PoPs should stay low, but a shower or two is possible in SE areas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 By Monday, we will be back in a warm sectored airmass with upper ridging centered off the Atlantic Coast and an upper trough making its way through the central Plains and into the Midwest. The upper ridge over the Atlantic looks to remain dominant over a large portion of the Southeast through at least the mid-week period, as the upper trough becomes less amplified as it moves across the Great Lakes and into Canada. This will keep near seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s) in place with daily chances for rain and storms, peaking (40-60%) during the afternoon diurnal heating hours. The track of the eventual remnants of Hurricane Beryl is still pretty uncertain at this time, and low confidence exists regarding whether or not the Tennessee Valley will see any rain from this system or not. For that reason, have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs given that it is at the 6-7 day range which suggest a 30-50% PoP Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s each night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Clouds continue to decrease in coverage with FEW-SCT mid and high clouds at or above 10k feet through this evening when high clouds will increase from the south. Winds remain light, favoring the north before increasing to 6-8 kts after sunrise and becoming more northeasterly. Convection should remain south of the area today but a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Confidence is low in any activity impacting the terminal so have not included in this TAF package. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KG SHORT TERM....Serre LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KG