689
FXUS63 KICT 081736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon
  through tonight.

- Hot today, with a cool down Sunday through Tuesday.
  Temperatures warming near to above average once again by
  Wednesday and beyond.

- Off-and-on slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend, although predictability is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

THIS MORNING...A rather expansive MCS is exiting the region to the
east early this morning. In its wake, lingering hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms are possible for a few hours this morning
within a zone of persistent mid-level warm advection. Severe weather
is not expected with this activity.

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening frontal zone could be a focus
for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
southern Kansas. Despite strong heating well into the 90s, NIL upper
support and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could spell
capping issues, raising questions on whether or not storms will even
form. If storms are able to develop and sustain themselves, strong
instability and adequate deep layer shear would support severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

LATER THIS EVENING--OVERNIGHT...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas late this afternoon within a region of upslope flow
along/north of the stationary low-level frontal zone. Very large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern with this
initial activity, with a gradual transition to damaging winds with
time further east as storms congeal into 1-2 expansive thunderstorm
complexes, aided by strong easterly inflow along/north of the
frontal zone. The combination of strong instability and increasing
effective deep layer shear will support the potential for a few
intense bow echoes capable of 60-80+ mph winds, especially over the
western half of Kansas, although severe storms could reach
as far as eastern Kansas.

SUNDAY--WEDNESDAY...A post-frontal airmass will likely support
slightly below average temperatures along with dry conditions
Sunday through Monday. For Tuesday, a meandering upper low could
bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the region, although it appears
better chances will be further south across Oklahoma. Temperatures
will be warming back up closer to normal levels by Wednesday.

THURSDAY--SATURDAY...Near to above normal temperatures are probable
late week into next weekend. Could be looking at a few chances for
thunderstorms as a frontal zone oozes south into Mid-America, along
with a few ripples in the upper flow. However, thunderstorm
predictability is low this far out with this type of summer-like
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Low pressure centered northeast of KAVK at 17:30Z is associated
with a trough of low pressure that extends from near KMCI
southwest through central Kansas and into the northern Texas
Panhandle will remain mostly stationary into the evening. VFR
conditions across the airspace will continue into the evening.

A complex of thunderstorms will develop on the High Plains this
evening and move east. These will move through the airspace
tonight from a period of 5Z-8Z west of I-135 to 8Z-11Z east of
there. The main threat with these is wind with westerly gusts
over 50 mph expected.

Once the initial storms pass, 2-3 hour period of stratiform
rainfall with lightning is expected with MVFR CIGS. The clouds
will clear out late morning to early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KRC