305
FXUS62 KILM 190723
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days
as high pressure sits well offshore. A warming trend begins late
in the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the
weekend. Heat indices may reach the triple digits over the
weekend. Onshore flow will bring more humid conditions by the
beginning of next week with a better chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Region remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the
surface. The center of the 5h ridge has shifted north of the
area while the elongated surface ridge axis has been slowly
drifting south. Impressive subsidence inversion once again in
place today and tonight will keep the region dry. Slight uptick
in moisture at the top of the mixed layer, basically trapped at
the bottom of the subsidence inversion, may lead to some
scattered flat clouds, but skies will still be in the mostly
sunny realm. Highs will be similar to Tue with coastal areas
ranging from mid 80s to lower 90s well inland - near to slightly
below climo. Lows will also run near to slightly below climo,
with typical cool spots managing to radiate well given the
atypically dry boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Subsidence will persist across most of the area through end of
the week with upper ridge centered just to the west and low
level ridge centered to the north-northeast. Dry, sunny, and
seasonable on Thursday, with below normal temps in the mid 60s
(away from the coast) Thursday night. A trough is forecasted to
move inland near GA/SC border early Friday, with the majority of
the moisture remaining well south of the area. There is a low
chance of thunderstorms during the day Friday across southern
parts of the CWA (Georgetown, Williamsburg, and possibly Horry)
where the subsidence inversion appears to be weaker.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Friday and Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging influence begins to weaken on Saturday as centers of
both the upper and low level ridges shift further away. Model
soundings still show a bit of a subsidence inversion present
during the day Saturday that will hinder diurnal convection,
with low chances again present across coastal NE SC. Saturday
kicks continues the warming trend as low level WAA strengthens
around Bermuda high, with highs in the mid 90s away from the
coast. Return flow and accompanying WAA and moisture advection
continues Sunday into early next week, with afternoon storms
possible with a focus on sea breeze and Piedmont trough. Above
normal temps during the day and night Sunday through Tuesday.
Ensemble data shows a 15-20% chance high temps inland could
reach 100F Sunday and Monday. Combined with elevated dewpoints
both days, most of the CWA is in a moderate to major heat risk
category. Warm weather with diurnal convection continues
Tuesday, though perhaps to a lesser extent as a dissipating
front looks to make its way into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some potential for brief borderline MVFR along the coast
through 14Z or so, otherwise VFR will prevail. Once again mid-
level subsidence will keep the area free of showers. Easterly
flow continues with gusts around 20 kt developing mid-morning
and persisting into the evening hours.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Extended period of onshore flow continues
today with east-northeast winds on the low end of the 15-20 kt
range this morning gradually increasing in the afternoon.
Prolonged onshore flow will maintain seas 4-5 ft this morning
with widespread 5 ft and an isolated 6 ft possible in the
afternoon. No plans for an SCA at this juncture with seas AOA 6
ft limited both spatially and temporally. Winds start to ease a
bit this evening, allowing for a subtle decrease in seas
overnight. An easterly wave 4-5 ft around 7 seconds will be
dominant.

Thursday through Sunday...Easterly onshore flow persists Thursday
and Friday with surface high pressure centered to the northeast.
Winds 15-20 kts Thursday with seas 4-5 ft (9 sec E swell) will
improve a bit Friday as the easterly fetch is disrupted with a
trough moving inland near the GA/SC border well south of the area.
Winds turn southerly Saturday afternoon, with south-southwest winds
continuing into early next week around Bermuda high pressure. Seas 2-
3 ft for the upcoming weekend, combination of weakening E swell and
S wind chop. Overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms possible
over the coastal waters each night (Thursday night through the
weekend).

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell and upcoming
full moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east
and southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) the
end of the week. A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for
Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches, as well as
Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, with high rip risk potentially
continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of
Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong
east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly swell
and winds versus strong rip currents. The area in between the
two, from north of Myrtle Beach to Ocean Isle Beach, will have a
combination of moderate rip current risk and moderate to strong
NE to SW longshore current the next couple of days.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO