983
FXUS62 KILM 291955
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather
through the weekend. A cold front will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday.
Relatively cooler and drier conditions will arrive behind the
front on Tuesday with warmer and more humid air returning
gradually through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pop up convection is primarily over NE SC at this time. With the
absence of any steering flow most cells are slow moving and
dropping decent rainfall, but coverage is isolated to scattered
at best. Rainfall totals are mostly a third to a half inch with
localized totals near 1 inch according to the radar. Tonight
should dry out but there could be the threat of patchy fog and
low stratus towards Sunday morning. These should burn off after
sunrise with a hot steamy day expected Sunday due to pre-frontal
warming. The entire area is expected to reach heat advisory
criteria with heat indices 105-109 deg. How warm we get exactly
will depend on timing of the convection. The threat for severe
weather will increase towards the late afternoon and into the
evening with the area in a Marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk,
primarily due to damaging wind gusts from downbursts/outflow.
PWATs in excess of 2.5" with a deep, warm cloud layer could also
lead to the threat of localized flooding as there won`t be much
in ways of storm motion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weather elements come together Sunday night through
most of the day Monday leading to likely to categorical pops for
most of this time. It appears via high resolution and to an extent
global models the best forcing occurs a couple of hours either side
of 12 UTC Monday. By later Monday night through the day Tuesday the
front and pops shift to the south. As for severe weather all areas
remain in Marginal Risk but with the timing of the best forcing
early in the morning the threat has probably decreased slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes to the extended forecast with
dry weather expected for Wednesday and most of the day Thursday with
lower temperatures and dewpoints along with it. The reprieve doesn`t
last long with mid summertime conditions consisting of higher
temperatures and dewpoints along with an increase in pops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widely scattered convection is ongoing with multiple outflow
boundaries moving across the area. Gusts are staying near 15-20
kts but brief changes in wind direction should be expected. Dry
conditions expected tonight with chances for fog/stratus.
Stronger convection is expected tomorrow, particularly towards
the late afternoon and onwards through the end of the TAF
period. Expect VSBY restrictions in heavy rain with the threat
of damaging wind gusts with stronger storms.

Extended Outlook...An approaching cold front may trigger
thunderstorms Sunday night, especially across inland areas. As
the front nears the coast on Monday more widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Seas 2-3 ft with winds S-SW around 10 kts.
Wind speeds will increase to near 15 kts Sunday as a front
approaches. Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase over the waters towards the end of the period ahead of
a front.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots
will be in place Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds will shift to the northeast later Monday night into
early Tuesday and seemingly have increased in magnitude now
firmly into a range of 15-20 knots. Winds will become more
easterly in time finally ending up in a return flow later in the
week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a few and or more
five footers showing up late Monday into early Tuesday. Overall
still not expecting any headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming 4th of July Holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
FIRE WEATHER...ILM