047
FXUS62 KILM 300153
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
953 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather
through the weekend. A cold front will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday.
Relatively cooler and drier conditions will arrive behind the
front on Tuesday with warmer and more humid air returning
gradually through the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Removed all remaining overnight POPs. Expect another night of
onshore stratocu movement across the coastal counties. Residual
debris convective debris clouds to dissipate thru the evening
and overnight. Quite the muggy night on tap with sfc dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s across the ILM CWA and min temps
basically in the 74 to 79 range. Light S to SSW wind overnight,
around 5 mph at the coastal counties, <5 mph inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pop up convection is primarily over NE SC at this time. With the
absence of any steering flow most cells are slow moving and
dropping decent rainfall, but coverage is isolated to scattered
at best. Rainfall totals are mostly a third to a half inch with
localized totals near 1 inch according to the radar. Tonight
should dry out but there could be the threat of patchy fog and
low stratus towards Sunday morning. These should burn off after
sunrise with a hot steamy day expected Sunday due to pre-frontal
warming. The entire area is expected to reach heat advisory
criteria with heat indices 105-109 deg. How warm we get exactly
will depend on timing of the convection. The threat for severe
weather will increase towards the late afternoon and into the
evening with the area in a Marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk,
primarily due to damaging wind gusts from downbursts/outflow.
PWATs in excess of 2.5" with a deep, warm cloud layer could also
lead to the threat of localized flooding as there won`t be much
in ways of storm motion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weather elements come together Sunday night through most of the
day Monday leading to likely to categorical pops for most of
this time. It appears via high resolution and to an extent
global models the best forcing occurs a couple of hours either
side of 12 UTC Monday. By later Monday night through the day
Tuesday the front and pops shift to the south. As for severe
weather all areas remain in Marginal Risk but with the timing of
the best forcing early in the morning the threat has probably
decreased slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes to the extended forecast with dry
weather expected for Wednesday and most of the day Thursday with
lower temperatures and dewpoints along with it. The reprieve
doesn`t last long with mid summertime conditions consisting of
higher temperatures and dewpoints along with an increase in
pops.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR to dominate the evening into the pre-dawn hrs with possible
MVFR stratocu moving onshore and affecting the coastal
terminals. Inland terminals, may observe MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions from stratus and/or ground fog mainly between 09z and
12Z. Winds SSE less than 10 kt this evening becoming SSW-SW 5 kt
or less overnight. For Sun, after stratus/fog dissipate, looking
at Cu field development all terminals. Sea breeze at the coastal
terminals may kick of SHRA and/or a TSRA by late morning and
continuing into the aftn. The inland terminals will see pre-
frontal trof convection develop or drop down from the NW during
Sun aftn/evening. Have included a prevailing tstorm group from
20Z onward for the inland terminals to account.

Extended Outlook...An approaching cold front will trigger
scattered convection Sun night into Mon, with periodic MVFR/IFR
possible. For Mon night thru Thu, VFR to dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Seas 2-3 ft with winds S-SW around 10 kts.
Wind speeds will increase to near 15 kts Sunday as a front
approaches. Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase over the waters towards the end of the period ahead
of a front.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Southwest winds of 10-15
knots will be in place Sunday night ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast later Monday night
into early Tuesday and seemingly have increased in magnitude
now firmly into a range of 15-20 knots. Winds will become more
easterly in time finally ending up in a return flow later in the
week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a few and or more
five footers showing up late Monday into early Tuesday. Overall
still not expecting any headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due
to low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are
a couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with
potentially moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but
is not expected to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While
the forecast, namely RH, remains above criteria for any NWS
products, extra caution should be used, especially with the
upcoming 4th of July Holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/LEW
FIRE WEATHER...LEW