Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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877 FXUS61 KILN 271554 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1154 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, bringing drier weather. The high will then move east of the area tonight and Friday. Moisture will return ahead of a cold front Friday night into Saturday. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along with humid conditions. High pressure is expected to build back into the region for Sunday and Monday, returning drier and cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure overspreading the Great Lakes region will be the primary driver of our weather pattern today. Northerly flow across the region will usher in relatively drier air, leading to a slight reduction in humidity/dewpoint values. There will be plenty of sunshine, but cu development will continue through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. Better cloud coverage expected along/north of I-70. Highs will reach the upper 70s to middle 80s across the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The center of the high will move east to the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Low level flow will gradually veer from the north, then to the northeast, then east. This will keep dry air in place. Other than some higher level clouds spilling in from the west, it should be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. On Friday, the low level flow will become southerly as the high continues to push away to our east. This will not only bring an increase in dewpoints but air temperatures as well. Skies will be partly cloudy with an increase in clouds occurring late from the west as a mid level disturbance approaches. Highs will range from the mid 80s north to around 90 along and south of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As high pressure shifts east Friday night, a mid level short wave may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms become likely on Saturday in increasing moisture convergence and lift ahead of a cold front. Ample instability and wind shear should allow a few strong to severe storms. Saturday night and Sunday will feature decreasing chances for showers and storms as the front pushes east. High pressure settling across the Great Lakes is forecast to bring a stretch of dry weather Monday and Tuesday. The next cold front brings back the threat for showers and storms on Wednesday. Temperatures will be very warm to start the period, with highs Saturday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Some locations in the south may experience heat indices around 100. Temperatures will retreat behind the first cold front, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday, and the upper 70s to low 80s Monday. Heat returns for the remainder of the long term, with highs reaching the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday, followed by low 90s in most locations on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patchy to areas of fog/stratus will lift/dissipate between 12Z and 14Z. This will bring an end to some of the very low conditions observed this morning. By late morning/early afternoon, FEW-SCT cumulus clouds can be expected at heights between 4 and 6 K FT. Winds will be northerly around 10 knots as surface high pressure continues to build south and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. For tonight, the center of the high will move off to the eastern Great Lakes, but it will continue to ridge into our region. Some high level clouds will spill in from the west. Winds will gradually veer with time from the northeast, then to the east. Outside of sheltered valleys, speeds will range between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman