Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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461 FXUS61 KILN 011034 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will remain in place across the region today. Heat and humidity will return by midweek, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will build southeast into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. It will be cooler and drier. Other than a FEW diurnal cumulus and some high clouds moving in from the west late, it will be mostly sunny. Highs will range from the mid and upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The center of the surface high will shift east to the eastern Great Lakes and New England tonight. Ridging will still extend back into the middle Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, mid level ridging will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some high clouds will filter through the mid level ridge, allowing skies to vary between mostly clear and partly cloudy. It will still be cool with lows generally in the 50s. On Tuesday, as the center of the surface high moves off the New England and mid Atlantic coast, low level flow will veer from an easterly direction to a southerly direction. Meanwhile, the mid level ridge will extend from the lower Ohio Valley northeast into the central/eastern Great Lakes. A warming trend will ensue as mid level geopotential heights rise and the airmass warms. Also, dewpoints will be on the increase due to the developing southerly flow. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will warm into the mid 80s north to near 90 along and south of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather is indicated from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning as high pressure exits east. A meandering frontal boundary will then provide convergence and lift leading to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and Friday. Model soundings show ample PWAT, instability and winds aloft supporting heavy rain and isolated downbursts. A weakening boundary to the southeast will still allow a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Hot temperatures are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the low and mid 90s. Heat indices may briefly exceed 100 in some locations Wednesday afternoon. Highs are expected to retreat to the 80s for Thursday through Sunday thanks to clouds, precip and modest cold advection associated with the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Surface high pressure will build southeast into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. A FEW mainly diurnal cumulus can be expected. Winds will be from the northeast around 10 knots with some local gusts between 15 and 20 knots after 15Z. For tonight, the center of the surface high will shift to the eastern Great Lakes and New England, but will still influence and extend back into the Ohio Valley. Some high level clouds will spill east overnight. Winds will become more easterly between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman