256
FXUS61 KILN 010551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will remain in place
across the region through Monday. Heat and humidity will return
by midweek, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered cumulus clouds developed across the area this
afternoon. Most of these clouds have dissipated with sunset. The
exception is across the far north where flow off the lakes has
resulted in lingering clouds. These clouds will also decrease in
coverage as they drift south. Expect skies to become mostly
clear skies overnight as surface high pressure builds southeast
into the region. Lows tonight will be mostly in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift slowly east across the lower
Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. This
will lead to continued mostly clear skies and seasonably cool
conditions. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s with
lows Monday night in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather is forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as high
pressure settles across the Great Lakes. A slow moving boundary
will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the
remainder of the period from Wednesday through Saturday.
Greatest threat for widespread storms appears to be on Thursday
when a large swath of deep moisture and short wave energy
interacts with an unstable airmass. Too early to pinpoint timing
and location for severe weather but it is likely that some
strong to severe storms will occur with this humid and unstable
weather regime.

Temperatures look close to normal to start the period, with
highs Tuesday in the mid and upper 80s. Warm advection ahead of
the boundary will boost highs into the 90s on Wednesday, with
apparent temps around 100. Clouds and precip may limit highs to
the 80s for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure will build southeast into the central
Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. A FEW mainly diurnal
cumulus can be expected. Winds will be from the northeast around
10 knots with some local gusts between 15 and 20 knots after
15Z.

For tonight, the center of the surface high will shift to the
eastern Great Lakes and New England, but will still influence
and extend back into the Ohio Valley. Some high level clouds
will spill east overnight. Winds will become more easterly
between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman