Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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019 FXUS61 KILN 212345 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 745 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm conditions will continue through Sunday. A cold front will move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing more seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week. This will also result in episodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday, with a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of thicker high clouds that will pass across the Tri-State through the evening but then should thin out later in the night. Drier low level airmass may not make it all of the way through the forecast area, so some valley fog is possible near and south of the Ohio River. Forecast temperatures still look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The drier air entrenched across the region tonight into Sunday morning will be shunted to the E into the afternoon, with a fairly pronounced dewpoint gradient expected to go along with it as some richer LL moisture advects in from the W during the afternoon. But it will take some effort to truly moisten the profile, with an expectation that an approaching band of SHRA, with embedded TS, will erode with eastward extent. The SHRA may initially be falling from a deck at about 8-10kft, with quite a bit of dry air to overcome in the LL. This is shown well even on the typically more moisture-robust guidance, with a rather deep layer of dry air in the bottom 8-10kft to overcome, especially during the onset. So while there will most certainly be some virga and perhaps some sprinkles, the prospect of appreciable measurable rainfall drops off rather abruptly near/E of I-75 Sunday afternoon. With some more expansive cloud cover moving in during the afternoon from the W, temps on Sunday will be warmest in the E (lower 90s), with mid 80s favored near/W of I-75. An additional S/W will move into the region Sunday evening through early Sunday night, but will again encounter an increasingly-unfavorable environment locally (after sunset) with eastward extent. So more of the same is on tap Sunday evening/night, wherein approaching SHRA/TSRA from the W should decrease in coverage with eastward extent, providing little more than perhaps a brief period of RA (and generally less than a tenth of any inch) for any one location. While there still should be /some/ precip Sunday evening/night for many locales, the SCT nature of the activity lends itself to PoPs being trimmed rather significantly from previous fcst cycles, generally topping out at only 50-60%. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A more active pattern will be in place for the long term. Models continue to be in general agreement through Wednesday with more variability beyond that time. While there is at least some rainfall potential throughout the long term, the greatest likelihood of precipitation is Monday and especially Tuesday. Breezy conditions are also expected on Tuesday. Kept the model blend low end pops for beyond Wednesday with greater uncertainty in place. With precipitation chances and increased cloud cover during the extended, temperatures will be lower than what has been in place. High temperatures in many locations will be in the 70s with some 80s also possible southeast of Interstate 71 on Monday. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Could see some fog reduce visibility at KLUK overnight. Otherwise VFR is forecast to prevail. Expect mainly high to mid clouds through the period. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly in the morning and eventually more westerly with some speeds to around 10 kt late in the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...