205
FXUS61 KILN 240724
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected today,
before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the
region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday through
Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the
last part of the workweek before heat and humidity build back
for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The mid/upper level trof axis stretching from the interior NE
CONUS back through the Great Lakes region continues to pivot to
the SE, bringing with it some subtle forcing that is allowing
for the development of some ISO SHRA across parts of NE OH. This
activity should stay to the NE of the local area, although
suppose a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out through daybreak
as the S/W energy digs south a bit more into the area before it
begins to shift to the E by mid/late morning. This feature,
however, is also bringing with it some more expansive cloud
cover, which will linger in central/south-central OH and NE KY
through mid-morning before a FEW/SCT diurnally-driven Cu
sprouts about by the afternoon.

Today is going to be a very pleasant weather day, especially by
seasonal standards. Low humidity, abundant sunshine, and
seasonably warm temperatures are on tap as highs reach into the
mid 80s with afternoon dewpoints generally in the mid to upper
50s. Sfc high pressure will traverse the local area mid/late
day, drifting to the E of the region tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The tranquil conditions from the near term period will spill
into the beginning of the short term period, although they
won`t last too long, unfortunately. As the aforementioned sfc
high shifts to the E of the OH Vly tonight into Tuesday morning,
abrupt moisture return will begin to nose back into the area
from the W. This will occur as another S/W ejects E through the
Great Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday morning, with a
surge of higher theta-e air nosing in from the W toward daybreak
Tuesday.

The forecast for very late tonight into the daytime Tuesday
becomes incredibly complex, and will be largely dictated by
convective evolution throughout the time period. Confidence
continues to increase in the potential for a decaying MCS to be
diving in from the N/NW right around daybreak Tuesday,
eventually encountering a thermodynamically-unfavorable
environment with E/SE extent during the morning. This MCS will
be forced by the S/W tracking through the Great Lakes region,
eventually pivoting toward the pooling of better LL instby
(across IL/IN) well to the SW of the best forcing/shear. There
will still be quite a bit of LL dry air entrenched across the
local area Tuesday morning, with dewpoints only in the lower 60s
across parts of WC OH and EC IN around sunrise. The better LL
moisture transport, at least initially, will be to the north of
the local area across far nrn IL/IN/OH early Tuesday morning in
areas where the mature MCS will be better organized and perhaps
a bit more intense. However, as we progress through the heart
of the morning hours, the convective complex should track to the
SE, or even straight to the S, across wrn parts of the local
area, weakening and likely dissipating near I-71 as it does so
into early Tuesday afternoon. Of course, the convective debris
blowoff and pooling of rain-cooled air will likely throw a
wrench into the fcst temps on Tuesday, but there may be enough
late-day rebound in the wake of morning convection to
eventually reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s as currently
expected. But this is far from certain.

By later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, stronger theta-e
advection into the area will likely be underway (eroding the
probable cold pool from earlier in the day), suggesting the
rebound in temps/humidity/SB instby may be significant by late
in the day near/W of I-71. At this juncture, it is likely that
additional clusters or complexes of storms may develop,
initially to the W across IL/IN before spreading to the E into
parts of the local area by early evening. Attempting to pinpoint
timing and exact locations at this time would be imprudent.
However, the best potential for storm activity late Tuesday will
be focused near/N of I-71, with drier conditions favored across
NE KY and parts of the lower Scioto Valley. Given the robust
destabilization efforts underway in the W late Tuesday and the
expectation for at least /some/ storms, it is worth mentioning
the potential for locally gusty/damaging winds with any of this
activity given the increasingly-favorable LL/deep-layer
thermodynamic fields and potential for cold-pool driven
complexes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will be working its way into the area at the start of
the extended period, with the parent low moving east out of the
Hudson Bay area. Again, there is still much ambiguity as to when/if
storms will be firing Tuesday afternoon/ what the evening/overnight
environment will be like as this frontal boundary moves through.

All guidance still hints at some type of MCS feature bowing through
*somewhere* in the Mid-Atlantic region at *some time* Tuesday into
Wednesday (rather specific, we know). Persistent lack of consistency
not only between models but between runs has made for a particularly
challenging forecast. Should this MCS feature occur, it will likely
be driven by its local cold pool and primary threats will be strong
to damaging wind gusts/localized heavy rainfall.

By Wednesday, the cold front will finally be moving into the CWA and
there is the possibility of redevelopment of storms given this
additional synoptic forcing. The strongest shear will be nearer to
the Lakes and there is some question as the degree of atmospheric
recovery after any overnight convection. However, should instability
build back in, would anticipate a return of thunderstorm activity
with strong to damaging winds the primary threat. Finally, want to
note that PWATs are still coming in around 2 standard deviations
above normal for this entire time period, indicating that any storms
will likely have efficient rainfall rates and any training will
result in localized flooding or runoff.

Post frontal air on Thursday indicates high temperatures in the low
80s (possibly even upper 70s in our north) with dew points in the
upper 60s. Weak ridging and surface high pressure take over and
we`ll have mostly sunny skies with some CAA cu. Overnight lows in
the upper 50s as we head into Friday.

Friday we see yet another disturbance on the horizon and return
southerly flow helps pump warm, moist air back into the region. Mid
and upper level clouds increase and highs reach back into the upper
80s. Precip from this system looks to move into the region sometime
Friday into Saturday as the warm associated with this disturbance
lifts through the area. This keeps temperatures on the warmer side,
with highs in the upper 80s/ low 90s for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday, we dry out again and temperatures cool slightly in the post
cold-frontal air.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tranquil conditions are expected through the TAF period as drier
air filters into the region. A stray SHRA may be possible near
KCMH/KLCK through the first several hours of the TAF period, but
most of this spotty activity should stay to the NE of these
sites.

A narrow axis of MVFR clouds will impact KCVG/KLUK, and perhaps
even KILN, through the first hour or so of the TAF period
before skies trend mostly clear for wrn sites after about 07z.

A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven VFR Cu will sprout about during the
afternoon, with the best coverage focused for central OH
(KCMH/KLCK). NNW winds at 5-10 kts will be maintained through
00z Tuesday before going light/VRB by 06z and eventually
southerly again by Tuesday daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC