767
FXUS61 KILN 250539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
139 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief respite in the heat and humidity today, before warmer
and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on
Tuesday. Chance for storms returns Tuesday and increases
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Drier and cooler
conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek
before heat and humidity build back for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Quiescent night ahead. Cumulus have pretty much dissipated.
Could see some mid clouds spread into the northwest before
daybreak from upstream storms. Light winds will become
southerly. Lows will be in the 60s with coolest readings in the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
Tuesday. Moisture to return in response to low level jet with an
increase in higher theta-e air nosing in from the W toward
Tuesday morning. Weakening MCS to track into West Central Ohio
early Tuesday. As this complex encounters an unfavorable
environment expect it to decay and fall apart leaving a good
deal of debris clouds. As the airmass recovers expect moderate
instability to develop later Tuesday afternoon - especially
along and northwest of I-71. With a high degrees of uncertainty
have kept pops in the chance category with the highest pops
across West Central Ohio. High temperatures to range from the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Models solutions support a low level jet of 40-45 kts with
moderate instability in place ahead of a shortwave embedded in
the westerly mid level flow. Expect storm chances to increase
as we head into Tuesday night and spread south and east across
ILN/s area. Given instability and shear the potential exists for
strong to severe storms with damaging winds being the primary
threat late in the day into Tuesday night. ML from CSU and SPC
outlooks highlight this threat generally along and northwest of
I-71. In the moist airmass locally heavy rain will also be a
threat. Mild lows generally in the lower 70s by Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
For Wednesday, a surface boundary in phase with an upper trough and
short wave energy will push into an unstable airmass, bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to
severe, with damaging winds the main threat, along with heavy rain.
A dry interlude is suggested for Thursday and Friday when high
pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes. A cold front
may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into
Sunday. Dry weather returns Monday with high pressure.

Temperature fluctuations will be evident with respect to frontal
position and associated clouds and precipitation. Highs ranging
through the 80s on Wednesday near the initial cold front will slip
to the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday in modest cold advection behind
the front. Warm advection and insolation associated with the high
will help boost readings to around 90 on Friday. Further warm
advection just ahead of the next front may bring highs up into the
90s for Saturday. A reduction back to the 80s is expected for Sunday
and Monday behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies will remain mostly clear for the local terminals through
the first several hours of the TAF period before some mid/high
clouds filter in from the W. Some brief BR and MVFR VSBYs will
be possible at KLUK in the several hours around daybreak, but
otherwise VFR conditions will be maintained area-wide through
12z.

For the daytime, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in how
things will unfold, especially when attempting to focus on one
specific location through time. In general, expect there will be
a few WAA-induced SHRA develop near KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN mid/late
morning before the remnants of an convective complex approach
the the nrn sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK shortly after 18z. There
remain some uncertainties in both timing and structural
integrity of this axis of SHRA/TSRA, especially as the
environment will be increasingly unfavorable for maintenance of
stronger/severe storms with E/SE extent. That being said, do
think there will be a broken linear feature that eventually
migrates to the S through the local area mid/late afternoon
(18z-22z), bringing with it some SHRA/TSRA and some gusty wind
potential (as the storms will be outflow dominant). But
pinpointing impacts at one location through the daytime will be
somewhat challenging. The activity should weaken with SE extent,
with the best organization/maintenance/intensity favored for
KCVG/KLUK where the better instby will be positioned by late
day. Of course, abrupt reductions in both VSBYs and CIGs and
wind speed/direction will be favored in the strongest activity.

By 00z, there may be a brief lull that evolves locally before
additional clusters/loosely-organized SHRA/TSRA move back into
the local area between 06z-12z Wednesday. Light southerly winds
will increase to 12-15kts as they go more out of the SW by/past
15z, eventually subsiding toward the end of the period as light
(generally 5kts or less) southerly flow resumes.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC