683
FXUS63 KIND 270704
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will be around early this morning, with some locally
dense fog as well.
- A brief respite from heat and humidity through Friday before
another warm up and additional storm chances Friday night through
the day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Early This Morning...

Areas of fog continue to develop across central Indiana early this
morning. Fog is dense at some ASOS observation sites, but webcams
are showing that the fog is not widespread. Will continue to watch
closely as fog is expanding on satellite imagery in a few locations.

Drier air will continue to try to work south into central Indiana,
but with light winds it will take a while. For now, plan to hold off
on a fog advisory, but will do so if dense conditions become
widespread. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for now.

Today...

Fog will mix out early after sunrise, so will only mention it very
early if needed. Otherwise, surface high pressure will bring quiet
weather to the area. Some cumulus will pop up, and cirrus may move
in late. There will be plenty of sunshine though.

The sunshine will combat cold advection, but the result will still
be below normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to middle
80s.

Tonight...

Some high clouds will move through at times tonight from convection
well off to the west. With clear to partly cloudy skies and drier
air in place, low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The long term will see a back and forth between quiet weather with
pleasant temperatures and heat with storm chances as multiple
systems move through the region.

The period will start out quiet but surface high pressure will be on
it`s way out.  Moisture will return followed by WAA due to an upper
wave and associated front move through the area. Showers and storms
may arrive as early as Friday night and potentially lasting into
early Sunday morning. Periodic breaks in the rain may be possible
with best chances for storms being early Saturday morning through
the afternoon hours as the front itself approaches. Daytime heating
(with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) and increasing moisture
advection ahead of the front is expected to promote moderate
destabilization. A corridor of organized strong to severe storms may
form somewhere across the Ohio Valley should the strong mid/upper
flow overlap the warm sector enough with the primary threat being
damaging wind gusts. Flooding may become an issue as well if the
storms move slowly enough, but exact timing or location is yet to
be seen.

Behind the weekend system, below normal temperatures and near to mid
50s dew points will provide a brief break for the start of the new
week. The next system, arriving towards mid next week, will return
heat and more storm chances. Models have slowed the arrival of next
week`s system hinting at the chance for showers and storms to linger
into the 4th of July. While much is unclear for the holiday at this
time, can`t rule out storms potentially impacting festivities.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Impacts:

- Patchy fog possible tonight at KHUF and especially KBMG
- NNE winds increasing slightly after dawn Thursday to 7-9KT

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over central Indiana terminals
through Thursday evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region from the northwest.  Mostly clear skies will continue to
advance southeastward early this evening ahead of a potential fog
threat.  MVFR visibility is possible at KHUF and especially KBMG
after 02Z...with worst conditions most likely during 04-08Z.

More fair weather expected on Thursday under FEW/SCT cumulus
while sustained surface winds continue from the NNE...increasing
slightly to 7-9KT after daybreak.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...AGM