Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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819 FXUS63 KIWX 272347 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 747 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few rounds of storms possible, one late Friday night into Saturday AM, with scattered storms also possible later Saturday afternoon into early evening. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible with Round 1, and an isolated severe weather potential may exist for Saturday afternoon/evening. - After a warm Saturday, cooler for Sunday behind cold front. Temperatures warm back into the 80s by Tuesday. - Dangerous swimming conditions for southeast Lake Michigan beaches are expected again Sunday and Sunday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Surface high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is keeping the area cool and dry today under northerly winds. Highs are only in the 70s this afternoon. Skies have been mostly clear, and the few fair weather cumulus that have developed with daytime heating will fade away this evening. Therefore, radiational cooling will bring overnight lows down to around 60 degrees. Dry weather will persist on Friday, but moisture and clouds and heat will increase as the flow swings southerly. Rainfall chances then also increase on Friday night with a series of shortwaves in progressive westerly flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday, and SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Bulk shear will be increasing to around 40 kts, and there is sufficient CAPE ahead of and along the cold front that will be sinking down through the region Saturday afternoon to warrant this assessment. Details will become more clear as we get closer to that time. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for Sunday. It will stay dry on Monday, but warm slightly as the upper ridge builds. The next chance for storms will be late Tuesday into Tuesday night as another front moves in. But models show this front stalling over the area on Wednesday and temperatures warming into the upper 80s. This seems a bit warm given cloud cover and rain, but will leave the NBM forecast for now. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 734 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions should persist through this forecast valid period. Induced mid level short wave ridging will push across the southern Great Lakes overnight as low level anticyclone shifts east of the region. This will allow the upstream mid and high clouds to overspread the terminals as mid level warm advection strengthens. Light north winds to begin the period will veer to the southeast overnight with the departure of the anticyclone, and eventually to south around 10 knots for Friday. Notable low level moisture transport will be more delayed until later Friday night as a mid level height minimum is slow to shift east across the Lower MS Valley region. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...Marsili