819
FXUS63 KIWX 272347
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
747 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few rounds of storms possible, one late Friday night into
  Saturday AM, with scattered storms also possible later
  Saturday afternoon into early evening. Some locally heavy
  rainfall is possible with Round 1, and an isolated severe
  weather potential may exist for Saturday afternoon/evening.

- After a warm Saturday, cooler for Sunday behind cold front.
  Temperatures warm back into the 80s by Tuesday.

- Dangerous swimming conditions for southeast Lake Michigan
  beaches are expected again Sunday and Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Surface high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is keeping the
area cool and dry today under northerly winds. Highs are only in
the 70s this afternoon. Skies have been mostly clear, and the
few fair weather cumulus that have developed with daytime
heating will fade away this evening. Therefore, radiational
cooling will bring overnight lows down to around 60 degrees.
Dry weather will persist on Friday, but moisture and clouds and
heat will increase as the flow swings southerly. Rainfall
chances then also increase on Friday night with a series of
shortwaves in progressive westerly flow aloft.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday, and SPC
has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Bulk shear
will be increasing to around 40 kts, and there is sufficient
CAPE ahead of and along the cold front that will be sinking down
through the region Saturday afternoon to warrant this
assessment. Details will become more clear as we get closer to
that time.

Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for Sunday. It
will stay dry on Monday, but warm slightly as the upper ridge
builds. The next chance for storms will be late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as another front moves in. But models show this
front stalling over the area on Wednesday and temperatures
warming into the upper 80s. This seems a bit warm given cloud
cover and rain, but will leave the NBM forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions should persist through this forecast valid
period. Induced mid level short wave ridging will push across
the southern Great Lakes overnight as low level anticyclone
shifts east of the region. This will allow the upstream mid and
high clouds to overspread the terminals as mid level warm
advection strengthens. Light north winds to begin the period
will veer to the southeast overnight with the departure of the
anticyclone, and eventually to south around 10 knots for Friday.
Notable low level moisture transport will be more delayed until
later Friday night as a mid level height minimum is slow to
shift east across the Lower MS Valley region.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Marsili