Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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787 FXUS64 KJAN 210302 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Rest of tonight... Ridging at the sfc & aloft are building in from the northeast, with RAP/evening 00Z upper air analysis indicate 598DM H5 ridge centered over the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic. GOES East water vapor/total precipitable water continue to indicate easterly drying pattern, with around an inch & a quarter PWs observed & will continue to persist through daybreak. There is a weak shortwave & pinched off moisture over the MS/AL border that has helped some moist ascent/low-mid level cloudiness to persist into the evening. As mean ridging continues to build in, dry night & mostly clear skies are expected. Lows will be seasonable, in the upper 60s east of I-55 to low 70s to the west. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Hi-res global guidance continues to highlight high pressure sfc ridging across much of the southeast CONUS. This will help keep weather conditions generally quiet across central MS tonight. Easterly flow will continue to push a weak shortwave, located on the southern peripheral of the sfc high, which could bring some low PoPs (around 11%), mainly for areas along and southeast of the I-59 corridor. The higher rain chances will remain along the southern Gulf coast as guidance shows Tropical Storm Alberto moving westward across central Mexico. We can expect to see some cloud coverage especially for areas along and west of the I-55 corridor heading into the overnight period. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s areawide. Dry/quiet conditions are expected tomorrow for most of the area as high pressure ridging continues to push the drier airmass across the southeast CONUS. A few popup showers or an isolated storm can`t be ruled out, especially further southwest portions of the area where somewhat greater moisture exists. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the mid 90s across the forecast area. Friday Night through Thursday... The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this week. Within this regime, afternoon temperatures will gradually increase into the upper 90s to near 100 by Sunday. Around this timeframe, low-level flow will begin to shift to the south and moisture will begin to return to the area, with dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. This will begin to yield heat indices in the triple digits in many areas. Went ahead and made a few modifications to the heat graphic for Sunday. The limited risk has been expanded further east to cover the Golden Triangle. Heading into the next work week, mid/upper ridging will begin to break down and shrink westward, resulting in a more perturbed NW upper flow pattern as future global guidance highlights a 1012 mb sfc high slowly moving eastward across the Ohio River Valley. Rain chances will start to increase starting on Monday as deep layer moisture continues to increase across the area. Hot conditions will persist given the increased moisture allowing for heat indices to reach critical thresholds. Given the warming trends, adjustments have been made to the heat graphic for Monday and Tuesday. The Elevated heat risk has be expanded further east to cover our entire forecast area. Heading into Wednesday-Thursday, the precip coverage will have a big impact on the afternoon highs. Although heat indices around this timeframe are around critical threshold, forecast confidence is low at this point regarding how the precip coverage will impact the heat potential. We will continue to monitor trends will provide updates to the heat potential for Wednesday as we get closer and forecast confidence increases. In addition to this, NHC is monitoring an area of potential development in the southwest Atlantic, just off the coast of the southeast US. At the moment, none of this activity is expected to have an impact on our weather through the extended period. We will continue to closely monitor this area of development and will provide updates as trends start to increase. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Expect VFR flight categories & SCT-BKN mid-high clouds, with light easterly wind, generally under 10mph sustained & gusts up to 15mph into Fri aftn, through the next 24 hours. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 69 94 69 97 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 72 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 70 92 71 95 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 72 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 71 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/CR/DC