121
FXUS64 KJAN 161939
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight through next weekend...

Through midweek (Wednesday): Wet start to the work week will remain.
With continued southerly return flow of moist BL/mean deep moisture
> 2 inches, with any storm chances winding down by early evening &
rain chances gone by midnight & reinvigorating into mid-morning
through the aftn on Monday. Synoptic pattern through mid-week will
consist of deep mean mid-level 500mb ridging >596DM over the Mid-
Atlantic states while moist southerly flow will keep rain & storm
chances around through at least Tuesday. Large Central American
Gyre (CAG) is ongoing & progged to persist across the Bay of
Campeche, where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a high
chance of development over the next week. This looks to be a
somewhat "hybrid" system with east-southeasterly jet/fetch of the
deepest tropical moisture, >2.5 inches, moving towards the TX
coastline into midweek. With that being said, some light
backbuilding flow & tropical moisture could bring some heavy
downpours across the Pine Belt & Hwy 84 corridor through Monday,
so localized flash flooding can`t be fully ruled out. However,
confidence remains too low to introduce anything in the HWO at
this time. With increased rain chances & cloud cover, highs &
heat/humidity concerns will be more seasonable Monday, slightly
less on Tuesday & on the upswing by midweek. The best moist
convergence will occur over the southwestern half of the area
Tuesday & drier air is progged to advect in from the northeast
Wednesday, gradually shunting rain chances further southwest
through midweek.

Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging at the sfc &
aloft is expected to fall slightly over the Mid-Atlantic region
while build over the OH Valley to nearing the MS River Valley. This
will help drive out most of the tropical moisture & convergence
closer to the ArkLaTex & southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with any
tropical development in near or south of the International
Border. Highs will moderate from near to slightly seasonably warm
in the upper 80s to low 90s, to seasonably warm in the mid-upper
90s. Rain chances will become confined to the Gulf Coast region
Thursday through the latter half of the week. Another tropical
wave is progged to propagate westward underneath underneath the
subtropical ridge nearing the FL Peninsula to Carolinas. NHC has
some low potential development of this system over the next week,
with global consensus indicating a range from a weak tropical
wave to an organized tropical system moving into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico late week into next weekend. Right now, there could
be enough confidence of Gulf moisture returning for an uptick in
rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace. However,
confidence remains on the low side at this point. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

With broad and continuous moisture advection continuing into the
CWA from the Gulf, being funneled by a stagnant surface high, we
can expect to see generally southerly flow and widespread cumulus
development throughout the area. A mid level inversion will
continue to erode throughout the period and has eroded completely
near the coast, allowing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A trend of this general instability and moisture
advection making its way inland will allow for broader showers and
thunderstorms for central and southern portions of the CWA. VFR
conditions are expected to persist, other than brief drops in
visibility and ceilings in showers and thunderstorms. Wind speeds
will increase in association with the aforementioned shifting
subsidence inversion moving off. /OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  89  73  86 /  20  70  20  30
Meridian      72  90  70  88 /  30  70  20  10
Vicksburg     73  89  72  85 /  20  70  20  30
Hattiesburg   73  90  73  89 /  40  90  20  40
Natchez       72  86  71  81 /  30  80  20  50
Greenville    75  90  74  89 /  10  60  20  20
Greenwood     75  90  73  89 /  10  60  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/OAJ