Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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134 FXUS64 KJAN 221505 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1005 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Latest surface analysis had a 1014mb high centered over the region. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a 592dam high centered just to our southwest and very little cloud cover over our CWA. This ridging surface and aloft will contribute to near full insolation leading to warmer than normal afternoon highs again today. No changes needed with this morning update. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 436 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today and Tonight: Both high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we round out the weekend. This will continue to allow for quiet weather conditions across the forecast area today into tonight. Dew points will again only mix into the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon, allowing muggy conditions to persist. Highs will remain above normal as they top out in the mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will also remain above normal as they range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/ Monday through Saturday: Primary concerns in the longer range forecast include the "potential" for heavy rainfall in our forecast area, and the likely development of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. Broadly speaking, a northern stream shortwave trough is expected to cross the northern Rockies and then dig southward through the Plains states early this week, with an associated cold front pushing through our area. As this happens, a subtropical high will strengthen near the South Atlantic coast region, and the circulation around this high should help steer a potential tropical "system" northward through the Gulf of Mexico and eventually toward the central to eastern Gulf Coast. Perhaps the biggest point of contention in the longer range forecast is the evolution of the northern stream trough and how much of it potentially cuts over the Southern Plains. There is a significant cluster of global model ensemble members that support the more cut off scenario, and this would allow the tropical moisture and perhaps tropical system impacts to affect areas farther west along our longitude. Meanwhile, another significant cluster of ensemble members is more progressive with the trough and less cut off resulting in the tropical moisture plume and potential system track being pointed further east. Given the central CONUS rex block pattern that has a footprint in most of the model guidance output, it stands to reason that some energy will cut off to our west, but just how much remains uncertain and will not message for any impacts at this point. Just be aware that significant forecast changes are likely in the next few days. In any case, we will have increased rain chances and cooler temperatures as we progress through the week in association with the front. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase through the morning from the south and southwest at around 5 knots, and continue as such through the afternoon. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 94 70 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 70 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 94 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 96 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/19/EC/19