Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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121 FXUS64 KJAN 161939 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Tonight through next weekend... Through midweek (Wednesday): Wet start to the work week will remain. With continued southerly return flow of moist BL/mean deep moisture > 2 inches, with any storm chances winding down by early evening & rain chances gone by midnight & reinvigorating into mid-morning through the aftn on Monday. Synoptic pattern through mid-week will consist of deep mean mid-level 500mb ridging >596DM over the Mid- Atlantic states while moist southerly flow will keep rain & storm chances around through at least Tuesday. Large Central American Gyre (CAG) is ongoing & progged to persist across the Bay of Campeche, where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a high chance of development over the next week. This looks to be a somewhat "hybrid" system with east-southeasterly jet/fetch of the deepest tropical moisture, >2.5 inches, moving towards the TX coastline into midweek. With that being said, some light backbuilding flow & tropical moisture could bring some heavy downpours across the Pine Belt & Hwy 84 corridor through Monday, so localized flash flooding can`t be fully ruled out. However, confidence remains too low to introduce anything in the HWO at this time. With increased rain chances & cloud cover, highs & heat/humidity concerns will be more seasonable Monday, slightly less on Tuesday & on the upswing by midweek. The best moist convergence will occur over the southwestern half of the area Tuesday & drier air is progged to advect in from the northeast Wednesday, gradually shunting rain chances further southwest through midweek. Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging at the sfc & aloft is expected to fall slightly over the Mid-Atlantic region while build over the OH Valley to nearing the MS River Valley. This will help drive out most of the tropical moisture & convergence closer to the ArkLaTex & southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with any tropical development in near or south of the International Border. Highs will moderate from near to slightly seasonably warm in the upper 80s to low 90s, to seasonably warm in the mid-upper 90s. Rain chances will become confined to the Gulf Coast region Thursday through the latter half of the week. Another tropical wave is progged to propagate westward underneath underneath the subtropical ridge nearing the FL Peninsula to Carolinas. NHC has some low potential development of this system over the next week, with global consensus indicating a range from a weak tropical wave to an organized tropical system moving into the northeast Gulf of Mexico late week into next weekend. Right now, there could be enough confidence of Gulf moisture returning for an uptick in rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace. However, confidence remains on the low side at this point. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 With broad and continuous moisture advection continuing into the CWA from the Gulf, being funneled by a stagnant surface high, we can expect to see generally southerly flow and widespread cumulus development throughout the area. A mid level inversion will continue to erode throughout the period and has eroded completely near the coast, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trend of this general instability and moisture advection making its way inland will allow for broader showers and thunderstorms for central and southern portions of the CWA. VFR conditions are expected to persist, other than brief drops in visibility and ceilings in showers and thunderstorms. Wind speeds will increase in association with the aforementioned shifting subsidence inversion moving off. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 89 73 86 / 20 70 20 30 Meridian 72 90 70 88 / 30 70 20 10 Vicksburg 73 89 72 85 / 20 70 20 30 Hattiesburg 73 90 73 89 / 40 90 20 40 Natchez 72 86 71 81 / 30 80 20 50 Greenville 75 90 74 89 / 10 60 20 20 Greenwood 75 90 73 89 / 10 60 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/OAJ