Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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727 FXUS62 KJAX 272343 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 743 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Two areas of focus for strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon. One will be across portions of SE GA where a loosely organized surface cold pool will push through a moist and unstable airmass while being supported by a shortwave aloft and its associated lift. The second area will be along the I-95 corridor and extend to the beaches where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will begin to interact, leading to isolated pulses capable of strong to severe downburst winds. With PWATs increasing toward two inches, rainfall rates on the order of 3-5" per hour are possible with more intense convection and could lead to localized flooding, especially at locations that have received rain the past couple of days. All of this is expected to unfold now through around 6-7 pm with convection shifting off the coast and generally fading thereafter. Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough may support a few elevated showers across SE GA but these are not anticipated to be strong or severe in nature. Southwesterly flow may also attempt to push a few inconsequential showers toward the I-75 corridor through the late night hours. Not very confident in much fog development tonight but patchy, light fog cannot be ruled out from the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA. Current temps are reading in the upper 80s and low 90s and should warm 3-5 more degrees over the next few hours, barring the influences from convection. Mostly clear skies and a little bit of southwesterly wind tonight will limit cooling to the mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A lingering mid/upper level trough across the Gulf coast into the GA coast and GA waters will serve to add lift to an early start to convection as southwest flow ahead of a weakening surface frontal boundary pushes the Gulf seabreeze well inland before it merges with the Atlantic seabreeze between US17/I-95 corridors Friday afternoon. Light NW shear and weak mid level lapse rates should limit severe T`storm potential overall, but some more intense convection along T`storm mergers will be strong with wind gusts wind gusts up around 40-50 mph. High moisture levels over 2 inches in PWAT will support heavy rainfall rates that will bring locally heavy rainfall rates that will produce isolated locally heavy amounts with frequent lightning. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the coast with low 90s along the beaches as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes onshore. Friday night, leftover T`storm outflow boundaries may push north into SE GA areas closer to the Altamaha river basin in the early evening hours with mostly cloudy skies from mid and high level debris clouds thinning out gradually overnight. Lows will range into the low/mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. Saturday, mid level ridging will build in from the southern plains into the deep south and increase heights over our area while surface high pressure ridging will shift from south FL into central FL with light southwest flow and a looser local pressure gradient allowing the Atlantic seabreeze to progress towards highway 301 before merging with the Gulf seabreeze with numerous to widespread T`storms coverage thanks to high moisture levels, strong diurnal heating with more sunshine and less clouds in the morning to midday window, and lift along the seabreeze/rivers/lake breezes. Highs will rise to the mid 90s before T`storms cool temperatures with low 90s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The period will begin with the mid level ridging slinking back to the west towards Texas as a new mid/upper level tough swings SE from the Great lakes into the Mid Atlantic states Sunday into Monday with numerous to widespread T`storm coverage as high moisture levels remain in place. The pattern will alter slightly by midweek as a cold front approaches the Altamaha river from the north on Tuesday and stalls off the southeast US coast Wednesday with high pressure ridging aloft rebuilding over the region by Thursday, limiting convection to more scattered coverage into the end of the week with highs heating up from the mid 90s inland and low 90s at the coast to the upper 90s inland and low 90s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Tonight, winds will be light out of the southwest with a few clouds around 6k ft. Early morning fog will be possible at VQQ. Friday, expect an early start for rain and thunderstorms beginning along the gulf coast sea-breeze and making its way inland and moving to the northeast towards the Atlantic coast TAF sites. Convection is expected to start at GNV around 14z and reach VQQ, JAX, and CRG around 15-16Z. The main concerns with these storms will be erratic winds and locally heavy rain showers that will limit visibilities. VFR conditions will prevail outside these storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Offshore flow will persist each day until afternoon sea breeze develops across the nearshore waters. Dominant high pressure will stay anchored in place to the east with a ridge axis to the south through the weekend. A weak front will approach from the north during the first half of next week and stall resulting in continued offshore flow. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the waters each afternoon through the weekend. RIP CURRENTS: Offshore flow will keep risk on the low-side of Moderate this afternoon. Moderate risk will continue into Friday, mainly in the afternoon with the sea breeze development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 93 74 95 / 40 70 30 60 SSI 78 90 77 92 / 30 70 30 60 JAX 75 94 75 94 / 20 80 20 70 SGJ 76 93 76 93 / 10 80 30 80 GNV 74 93 73 94 / 10 80 10 90 OCF 76 93 75 94 / 20 90 10 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$