375
FXUS62 KJAX 271844
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Two areas of focus for strong to marginally severe storms this
afternoon. One will be across portions of SE GA where a loosely
organized surface cold pool will push through a moist and unstable
airmass while being supported by a shortwave aloft and its
associated lift. The second area will be along the I-95 corridor and
extend to the beaches where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will
begin to interact, leading to isolated pulses capable of strong to
severe downburst winds. With PWATs increasing toward two inches,
rainfall rates on the order of 3-5" per hour are possible with more
intense convection and could lead to localized flooding, especially
at locations that have received rain the past couple of days. All of
this is expected to unfold now through around 6-7 pm with convection
shifting off the coast and generally fading thereafter.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough may support a few
elevated showers across SE GA but these are not anticipated to be
strong or severe in nature. Southwesterly flow may also attempt to
push a few inconsequential showers toward the I-75 corridor through
the late night hours. Not very confident in much fog development
tonight but patchy, light fog cannot be ruled out from the Suwannee
Valley and inland SE GA.

Current temps are reading in the upper 80s and low 90s and should
warm 3-5 more degrees over the next few hours, barring the
influences from convection. Mostly clear skies and a little bit of
southwesterly wind tonight will limit cooling to the mid 70s inland
and upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A lingering mid/upper level trough across the Gulf coast into
the GA coast and GA waters will serve to add lift to an early
start to convection as southwest flow ahead of a weakening
surface frontal boundary pushes the Gulf seabreeze well inland
before it merges with the Atlantic seabreeze between US17/I-95
corridors Friday afternoon. Light NW shear and weak mid level
lapse rates should limit severe T`storm potential overall, but
some more intense convection along T`storm mergers will be strong
with wind gusts wind gusts up around 40-50 mph. High moisture
levels over 2 inches in PWAT will support heavy rainfall rates
that will bring locally heavy rainfall rates that will produce
isolated locally heavy amounts with frequent lightning. Highs
will rise into the mid 90s away from the coast with low 90s along
the beaches as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes onshore.

Friday night, leftover T`storm outflow boundaries may push north
into SE GA areas closer to the Altamaha river basin in the early
evening hours with mostly cloudy skies from mid and high level
debris clouds thinning out gradually overnight. Lows will range
into the low/mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast.

Saturday, mid level ridging will build in from the southern plains
into the deep south and increase heights over our area while
surface high pressure ridging will shift from south FL into
central FL with light southwest flow and a looser local pressure
gradient allowing the Atlantic seabreeze to progress towards
highway 301 before merging with the Gulf seabreeze with numerous
to widespread T`storms coverage thanks to high moisture levels,
strong diurnal heating with more sunshine and less clouds in the
morning to midday window, and lift along the seabreeze/rivers/lake
breezes. Highs will rise to the mid 90s before T`storms cool
temperatures with low 90s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The period will begin with the mid level ridging slinking back to
the west towards Texas as a new mid/upper level tough swings SE
from the Great lakes into the Mid Atlantic states Sunday into
Monday with numerous to widespread T`storm coverage as high
moisture levels remain in place. The pattern will alter slightly
by midweek as a cold front approaches the Altamaha river from the
north on Tuesday and stalls off the southeast US coast Wednesday
with high pressure ridging aloft rebuilding over the region
by Thursday, limiting convection to more scattered coverage into
the end of the week with highs heating up from the mid 90s inland
and low 90s at the coast to the upper 90s inland and low 90s at
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Ongoing convection pushing across NE FL will lead to intermittent
visibility impacts, lightning potential, and possibly gusty winds
in excess of 30 kts through about 22z. Most activity will
diminish and move off the coast early this evening but a rogue
shower or two could linger at KSSI through around 02z. While areas
of MVFR stratus could develop early Friday, confidence (at or
below 20%) is too low to justify a mention at this time; Better
chance of VFR prevailing through the overnight and morning hours
Friday. Light southwesterly winds will continue but back off
enough Friday to allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland.
Another stormy afternoon is expected along the I-95 corridor
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Offshore flow will persist each day until afternoon sea breeze
develops across the nearshore waters. Dominant high pressure will
stay anchored in place to the east with a ridge axis to the south
through the weekend. A weak front will approach from the north
during the first half of next week and stall resulting in continued
offshore flow. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
waters each afternoon through the weekend.

RIP CURRENTS: Offshore flow will keep risk on the low-side of
Moderate this afternoon. Moderate risk will continue into Friday,
mainly in the afternoon with the sea breeze development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  93  74  95 /  40  70  30  60
SSI  78  90  77  92 /  30  70  30  60
JAX  75  94  75  94 /  20  80  20  70
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  10  80  30  80
GNV  74  93  73  94 /  10  80  10  90
OCF  76  93  75  94 /  20  90  10  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$