Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
256 FXUS65 KLKN 261021 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 321 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Increasing showers and thunderstorms across central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Northwestern Nevada is expected to have very dry conditions along with increasing west- southwest winds in the afternoon which will promote critical fire weather conditions. Slightly cooler temperatures expected to make its way back on Thursday and Friday, followed by a returning hot temperatures over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Thursday Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected to continue early this morning and dissipate before the next wave of isolated thunderstorms form this afternoon in central and northeastern Nevada, however northwestern Nevada is expected to remain dry. Temperatures are expected to still reach into the 90s across the state with overnight lows falling into the 50s and 60s, however there is still a continuing heat risk for West Wendover as high temperatures reach into the low 90s, but the overnight lows from the surounding lower elevations are expected to remain into the 70s. A low pressure front from the northwest is expected to move into northwestern Nevada by the afternoon. The oncoming front will increase wind speeds from west-southwest upwards of 20+ across northwestern Nevada. Wednesday night, chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across eastern portion of N. Nye County and White Pine County, as the system heads eastwards towards Utah and drier conditions move in from the west. Thursday, dry weather condition return over the silver state but with slightly cooler temperatures from the oncoming low pressure front from the northwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the 80s to low 90s for central Nevada and in the 70s for northern Nevada. However, West Wendover is still expected to be hot with high temperatures in the 90s, but some relief is expected overnight Thursday as low temperatures are expected to drop back into the 60s. Afternoon westerly winds expected to increase at 15-20 mph with the stronger winds more towards northeastern Nevada. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday Lingering light northerly flow will keep temperatures in check across northern Nevada Friday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s with primarily 80s and lower 90s south of US-50. Ridge axis shifts eastward Saturday allowing stronger southwest flow to develop during the day across the area. Temperatures will also respond upward with highs in the 90s returning to northern Nevada valleys and lows only lowering into the upper 50s for Friday night. A broad trough will pass through the northern Rockies region Sunday bringing a few showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to far northern Nevada Sunday afternoon. Minimal rainfall is expected. Cooler temperatures linger across northern Nevada into Monday under a northwest flow with dry conditions setting up for next week under dry southwest flow with monsoon moisture remaining in Utah. Highs will generally range in the 80s to low 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid to upper-level moisture will move into central and northeastern Nevada Wednesday afternoon, allowing for another round of widespread convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across KELY, KEKO, and KTPH. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats starting after 18Z. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-30 knots. BLDU is possible starting around 21Z at KWMC given the strong winds. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate in the morning but increase again in the afternoon for central and northeastern Nevada. RH values will be slightly higher this time, however is expected to start out dry, but mix a little faster as RH values are at 20-30%. Zone 425 and 470 are expected to have the highest chances (between 40-50%) in the afternoon while zone 427 426 and eastern half of 469 have chances between 25-40%. Chances heading westward drop off to below 17% quickly for the remaining zones. Zone 437 is expected to be in critical fire weather condition as RH values drop below 15% along with gusty west- southwest winds in the afternoon to evening hours. A cold front and associated upper-level disturbance will push into the state across northern Nevada, lowering temperatures, however drier air moves in behind, lowering humidity as well as most of the moisture gets pushed out of the region Thursday. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures back into the 90s return Friday and Saturday with another upper-level disturbance acting to increase winds across the state along and chances of returning showers/thunderstorms along the Idaho/Nevada border on Sunday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening Humboldt County-Quinn. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 97/93/90/97