988
FXUS65 KLKN 142009
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
109 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Northern and
Central Nevada Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A storm
system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Sunday evening
through Tuesday afternoon, resulting in periods of precipitation.
Most of this precipitation will fall Monday and Monday night.
Strong wind gusts are possible in White Pine County Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night
A trough of low pressure will weaken as it moves northeastward
through Northern Nevada tonight. An upper-level area of low
pressure will progress southward along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest Sunday. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in
the majority of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind
gusts near 45 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes,
and small hail. Thunderstorm probabilities Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening vary from 10 to 20 percent in Elko, Eureka, and
White Pine Counties. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will be
near normal for this time of year.

The aforementioned cyclone aloft will turn eastward over Central
California Sunday night. Precipitation associated with this
atmospheric disturbance will begin to overspread Northern and
Central Nevada Sunday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth
of an inch of rain or higher for select locations in Northern and
Central Nevada Sunday night:

Winnemucca - 55%
Battle Mountain - 50%
Austin - 45%
Spring Creek - 40%
Wells - 40%
Elko - 35%
Eureka - 20%
West Wendover - 20%
Tonopah - 15%
Ely - 4%

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday
A deep trough of low pressure centered over northern CA will move
into the western U.S. Monday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient ahead the trough will bring breezy to windy conditions
across portions of central and north-central Nevada. South to
southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40
mph. Widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chance) will
develop over the entire CWA. Most of the rainfall is expected
across central and north-central Nevada, with storm total amounts
through Tuesday afternoon ranging from half of an inch to an inch
of rain.

After a brief break in drier weather Tuesday, another trough of
low pressure will bring another round of widespread showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday.
Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain in
central NV. By early to mid next week, highs will cool into upper
50s to lower 60s with lows in the mid 30s. As the trough exits the
region, a zonal flow pattern and dry weather returns Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours.
Breezy S-SW winds expected to diminish later this evening at KTPH
and KELY. By Sunday afternoon, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 kts
with gusts to around 20 kts expected at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO.
Gusts to around 30 kts expected at KELY and KTPH. Thunderstorms
will develop across portions of eastern NV during the afternoon,
with a 15-20% chance of TS near KEKO and KELY. Any storms that
develop can be expected to produce outflow winds of 20 kts gusting
to 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in parts of Central
Nevada this afternoon into this evening due to south to southwest
wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low
as 9 percent. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in
Northern Nye County Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening due to
south to southwest wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative
humidity values as low as 13 percent. A few strong thunderstorms
are possible in the majority of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards
will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph, dangerous cloud to ground
lightning strikes, and small hail. A low pressure system will
impact Northern and Central Nevada Sunday evening through Tuesday
afternoon, resulting in periods of precipitation. The majority of
this precipitation will fall Monday and Monday night.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

87/90/90/87